London, UK, 28 September 2023

Triple Point Social Housing REIT: Robust base and capital deployment options

Triple Point Social Housing (SOHO) reported solid H123 results. With borrowing costs fixed, growth in indexed rental income partly offset the impact of credit loss provisions against its two unperforming tenants. Progress is being made in resolving these issues, and as there is no read-across to the wider portfolio, we forecast full dividend cover through FY24. Meanwhile, with the demand for specialised supported housing remaining strong, SOHO has entered a partnership with one of the leading providers in the sector.

The FY23e yield is c 10%. We estimate that even a c 20% decline in FY24 income would support a fully covered DPS of at least c 4.5p, or a yield of c 7.6%, consistent with the peer average.

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