RNS Number : 9469X
NatWest Group plc
26 July 2024
 

Inside this report

 

Business performance summary

2

H1 2024 performance summary

4

Performance key metrics and ratios

6

Chief Financial Officer review

8

Retail Banking

9

Private Banking

10

Commercial & Institutional

11

Central items & other

12

Segment performance

 

 

Risk and capital management

17

Credit risk

17

Economic loss drivers

21

Governance and post model adjustments

23

Measurement uncertainty and ECL
   sensitivity analysis

25

Measurement uncertainty and ECL
   adequacy

26

Credit risk - Banking activities

26

Financial instruments within the scope of the
   IFRS 9 ECL framework

27

Segment analysis - portfolio summary

30

Segment loans and impairment metrics

31

Sector analysis - portfolio summary

37

Wholesale forbearance

39

Personal portfolio

42

Commercial real estate

43

Flow statements

 


 

 

Risk and capital management continued

51

Stage 2 decomposition by a significant
   increase in credit risk trigger

53

Asset quality

57

Credit risk - Trading activities

60

Capital, liquidity and funding risk

71

Non-traded market risk

76

Traded market risk

76

Pension risk

76

Compliance and conduct risk

 


Financial statements and notes

77

Condensed consolidated income statement

78

Condensed consolidated statement of
   comprehensive income

79

Condensed consolidated balance sheet

80

Condensed consolidated statement of
   changes in equity

82

Condensed consolidated cash flow statement

83

Presentation of condensed consolidated
   financial statements

83

Net interest income

84

Non-interest income

85

Operating expenses

86

Segmental analysis

89

Tax

90

Financial instruments - classification

92

Financial instruments - valuation

 


 

 

Financial statements and notes continued

97

Trading assets and liabilities

98

Loan impairment provisions

99

Provisions for liabilities and charges

99

Dividends

99

Contingent liabilities and commitments

100

Litigation and regulatory matters

106

Related party transactions

106

Acquisitions

106

Post balance sheet events

106

Date of approval

107

Independent review report to NatWest
   Group plc


Additional information

108

NatWest Group plc summary risk factors

110

Statement of directors' responsibilities

111

Presentation of information

111

Statutory accounts

111

Forward-looking statements

112

Share information and contacts

 

Appendix

113

Non-IFRS financial measures

118

Performance measures not defined
   under IFRS

 



 


H1 2024 performance summary

Chief Executive, Paul Thwaite, commented:

"As the UK's leading business bank, and one of the largest retail banks, NatWest Group's strong performance is grounded in the vital role we play in the UK economy and in the lives of our 19 million customers. In the first half of the year, we have delivered an operating profit of £3 billion, a return on tangible equity of 16.4% and a 6 pence interim dividend, up 9% on last year's dividend. We are also pleased with the continued reduction of the Government's stake, which has almost halved this year.

We have made good progress against our strategic priorities, taking decisive action to grow and simplify our business and to manage our capital and costs more efficiently. There has been growth across all three of our businesses, we have attracted over 200,000 new customers and our acquisition from Sainsbury's Bank is expected to add around one million customer accounts on completion. We have also agreed to acquire £2.5 billion of UK prime residential mortgages from Metro Bank plc, adding further scale to our Retail Banking business.

The positive momentum and progress in the first half reflect the ambition across the bank to deliver its full potential. Our customers are beginning to feel more confident, with activity increasing and asset quality remaining strong, and we are well positioned to help unlock growth across the UK through our unrivalled regional network. Fundamentally, if we succeed with our customers, we will succeed for our shareholders and the wider economy."


 

Strong H1 2024 and Q2 performance

-   H1 2024 attributable profit of £2,099 million and a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 16.4%.

-   Q2 2024 total income excluding notable items(1) of £3,590 million was £176 million, or 5.2%, higher than Q1 2024 primarily reflecting increased deposit income whilst H1 2024 was £379 million lower than H1 2023 due to lower average deposit balances and mix changes and lending margin pressure.

-   Net interest margin (NIM) of 2.10% was 5 basis points higher than Q1 2024 primarily due to improved deposit margins.

-   Q2 2024 other operating expenses were £100 million lower than Q1 2024, or £21 million lower excluding costs in relation to bank levies of £87 million and the potential retail share offering. H1 2024 other operating expenses were £149 million higher than H1 2023, or £42 million, 1.1%, higher excluding costs in relation to the potential retail share offering of £24 million and additional bank levies of £83 million.

-   Net impairment charge of £48 million in H1 2024, or 3 basis points of gross customer loans. Levels of default remain stable and at low levels across the portfolio.


 

Robust balance sheet with strong capital and liquidity levels

-   Net loans to customers excluding central items decreased by £1.7 billion in the quarter and decreased £0.3 billion in the first half as growth in Commercial & Institutional was offset by UK Government scheme repayments and lower mortgage balances as customer redemptions offset new lending.

-   Up to 30 June 2024 we have provided £78.3 billion against our target to provide £100 billion climate and sustainable funding and financing between 1 July 2021 and the end of 2025.

-   Customer deposits excluding central items were up by £6.1 billion in the first half of the year and increased £5.2 billion in Q2 2024. Term balances remained consistent in the quarter at 17% of our book and up from 16% at the end of 2023.

-   The loan:deposit ratio (LDR) (excl. repos and reverse repos) was 83% at Q2 2024, with customer deposits exceeding net loans to customers by around £72 billion.

-   The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of 151%, representing £54.5 billion headroom above 100% minimum requirement was unchanged compared with Q1 2024.

-   TNAV per share increased by 12 pence in H1 2024 to 304 pence primarily reflecting the profit for the period, partially offset by the 2023 final ordinary dividend of 11.5 pence.

 

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of notable items.

 



 

H1 2024 performance summary continued

Shareholder return supported by strong capital generation

-   We are pleased to announce an interim dividend of 6 pence per share which, including the £1.2 billion directed buyback completed in May, brings total distributions announced to £1.7 billion for H1 2024.

-   Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.6% was 10 basis points higher than Q1 2024 reflecting the attributable profit and reduction in RWAs, partially offset by capital distributions.

-   During Q2 2024 we agreed to acquire the outstanding credit card, unsecured personal loans and savings balances of Sainsbury's Bank, subject to court and regulatory approvals. On completion we expect this acquisition to add around one million customer accounts to our Retail Banking business.

-   RWAs of £180.8 billion reduced by £5.5 billion in Q2 2024 largely reflecting RWA management of £3.9 billion.


 

Outlook(1)

We continue to assess the economic outlook and will monitor and react to market conditions and refine our internal forecasts as the economic position evolves. The following statements are based on our current expectations for interest rates and economic activity.

In 2024 we now expect:

-      to achieve a return on tangible equity above 14%.

-      income excluding notable items to be around £14.0 billion.

-      Group operating costs, excluding litigation and conduct costs, to be broadly stable compared with 2023 excluding around £0.1 billion increase in bank levies and £24 million of costs in relation to the potential retail share offering by HM Treasury.

-      our loan impairment rate for 2024 to be below 15 basis points. 

In 2026 we continue to expect:

-      to achieve a return on tangible equity for the Group of greater than 13%.

Capital - we continue to:

-    target a CET1 ratio in the range of 13-14%.

 

-    expect RWAs to be around £200 billion at the end of 2025, including the impact of Basel 3.1, however this remains subject to final rules and approval.

-    expect to pay ordinary dividends of around 40% of attributable profit and maintain capacity to participate in directed buybacks from the UK Government, recognising that any exercise of this authority would be dependent upon HMT's intentions. We will also consider further on-market buybacks as appropriate.

 



 

(1)       The guidance, targets, expectations, and trends discussed in this section represent NatWest Group plc management's current expectations and are subject to change, including as a result of the factors described in the NatWest Group plc Risk Factors section in the 2023 Annual Report and Accounts and Form 20-F and the Summary Risk Factors in this announcement. These statements constitute forward-looking statements. Refer to Forward-looking statements in this announcement.


Business performance summary

 


Half year ended

 

Quarter ended


30 June

30 June



30 June

31 March


30 June



2024

2023

Variance


2024

2024

Variance

2023

Variance

Summary consolidated income statement

£m

£m

%


£m

£m

%

£m

%

Net interest income

5,408

5,726

(5.6%)


2,757

2,651

4.0%

2,824

(2.4%)

Non-interest income

1,726

2,001

(13.7%)


902

824

9.5%

1,027

(12.2%)

Total income

7,134

7,727

(7.7%)


3,659

3,475

5.3%

3,851

(5.0%)

Litigation and conduct costs

(101)

(108)

(6.5%)


(77)

(24)

nm

(52)

48.1%

Other operating expenses

(3,956)

(3,807)

3.9%


(1,928)

(2,028)

(4.9%)

(1,875)

2.8%

Operating expenses

(4,057)

(3,915)

3.6%


(2,005)

(2,052)

(2.3%)

(1,927)

4.0%

Profit before impairment losses/releases

3,077

3,812

(19.3%)


1,654

1,423

16.2%

1,924

(14.0%)

Impairment (losses)/releases

(48)

(223)

(78.5%)


45

(93)

(148.4%)

(153)

(129.4%)

Operating profit before tax

3,029

3,589

(15.6%)


1,699

1,330

27.7%

1,771

(4.1%)

Tax charge

(801)

(1,061)

(24.5%)


(462)

(339)

36.3%

(549)

(15.8%)

Profit from continuing operations

2,228

2,528

(11.9%)


1,237

991

24.8%

1,222

1.2%

Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax

11

(108)

(110.2%)


15

(4)

nm

(143)

(110.5%)

Profit for the period

2,239

2,420

(7.5%)


1,252

987

26.8%

1,079

16.0%

 

 




 





Performance key metrics and ratios

 




 





Notable items within total income (1)

£130m

£344m

nm


£69m

£61m

nm

£288m

nm

Total income excluding notable items (1)

£7,004m

£7,383m

(5.1%)


£3,590m

£3,414m

5.2%

£3,563m

0.8%

Net interest margin (1)

2.07%

2.23%

(16bps)


2.10%

2.05%

5bps

2.20%

(10bps)

Average interest earning assets (1)

£524bn

£518bn

1.2%


£528bn

£521bn

1.3%

£514bn

2.7%

Cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

55.5%

49.3%

6.2%


52.7%

58.4%

(5.7%)

48.7%

4.0%

Loan impairment rate (1)

3bps

12bps

(9bps)


(5bps)

10bps

(15bps)

16bps

(21bps)

Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders

£2,099m

£2,299m

(8.7%)


£1,181m

£918m

28.6%

£1,020m

15.8%

Total earnings per share attributable to ordinary shareholders - basic 

24.2p

24.3p

(0.1p)


13.7p

10.5p

3.2p

11.0p

2.7p

Return on tangible equity (RoTE) (1)

16.4%

18.2%

(1.8%)


18.5%

14.2%

4.3%

16.4%

2.1%

Climate and sustainable funding and financing (2)

£16.3bn

£16.0bn

1.9%


£9.7bn

£6.6bn

47.0%

£8.4bn

15.5%

 

nm = not meaningful.

For the footnotes to this table refer to the following page.



 

Business performance summary continued


 




As at


 




30 June

31 March


31 December



 




2024

2024

Variance

2023

Variance

Balance sheet

 




£bn

£bn

%

£bn

%

Total assets

 




690.3

697.5

(1.0%)

692.7

(0.3%)

Loans to customers - amortised cost

 




379.3

378.0

0.3%

381.4

(0.6%)

Loans to customers excluding central items (1,3)

 




355.3

357.0

(0.5%)

355.6

(0.1%)

Loans to customers and banks - amortised cost and FVOCI 

 




388.9

387.7

0.3%

392.0

(0.8%)

Total impairment provisions (4)

 




3.3

3.6

(8.3%)

3.6

(8.3%)

Expected credit loss (ECL) coverage ratio 

 




0.86%

0.94%

(8bps)

0.93%

(7bps)

Assets under management and administration (AUMA) (1)

 




45.1

43.1

4.6%

40.8

10.5%

Customer deposits

 




433.0

432.8

0.0%

431.4

0.4%

Customer deposits excluding central items (1,3)

 




425.2

420.0

1.2%

419.1

1.5%

Liquidity and funding

 




 





Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)

 




151%

151%

0.0%

144%

7.0%

Liquidity portfolio

 




227

229

(1.0%)

223

1.8%

Net stable funding ratio (NSFR)

 




139%

136%

3.0%

133%

6.0%

Loan:deposit ratio (excl. repos and reverse repos)  (1)

 




83%

84%

(1%)

84%

(1%)

Total wholesale funding

 




83

87

(4.6%)

80

3.8%

Short-term wholesale funding

 




27

31

(12.9%)

28

(3.6%)

Capital and leverage

 




 





Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio (5)

 




13.6%

13.5%

10bps

13.4%

20bps

Total capital ratio (5)

 




19.5%

18.8%

70bps

18.4%

110bps

Pro forma CET1 ratio (excl. foreseeable items) (6)

 




14.1%

14.3%

(20bps)

14.2%

(10bps)

Risk-weighted assets (RWAs)

 




180.8

186.3

(3.0%)

183.0

(1.2%)

UK leverage ratio

 




5.2%

5.1%

0.1%

5.0%

0.2%

Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (1,7)

 




304p

302p

2p

292p

12p

Number of ordinary shares in issue (millions) (7)

 




8,307

8,727

(4.8%)

8,792

(5.5%)

(1)       Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.

(2)       NatWest Group uses its climate and sustainable funding and financing inclusion (CSFFI) criteria to determine the assets, activities and companies that are eligible to be included within its climate and sustainable funding and financing target. This includes both provision of committed (on and off-balance sheet) funding and financing, including provision of services for underwriting issuances and private placements.

(3)       Central items includes Treasury repo activity and Ulster Bank Republic of Ireland.

(4)       Includes £0.1 billion relating to off-balance sheet exposures (31 March 2024 - £0.1 billion; 31 December 2023 - £0.1 billion).

(5)       Refer to the Capital, liquidity and funding risk section for details of the basis of preparation.

(6)       The pro forma CET1 ratio at 30 June 2024 excludes foreseeable items of £889 million: £839 million for ordinary dividends and £50 million foreseeable charges (31 March 2024 excludes foreseeable items of £1,633 million: £1,380 million for ordinary dividends and £253 million foreseeable charges; 31 December 2023 excludes foreseeable items of £1,538 million: £1,013 million for ordinary dividends and £525 million foreseeable charges).

(7)       The number of ordinary shares in issue excludes own shares held.

 

 


Chief Financial Officer review

We delivered an operating profit of £3,029 million in the first half of the year with a RoTE of 16.4%. Total income excluding notable items of £7.0 billion in H1 2024 was down by 5.1% on the prior year but Q2 2024 was up 5.2% on Q1 2024. We continue to see low levels of default across our portfolio, with a net impairment charge of 3 basis points of gross customer loans for the first half of the year.

In the first half of the year net lending excluding central items decreased by £0.3 billion. Excluding repayment of UK Government schemes of £1.0 billion net lending increased by £0.8 billion, driven by Commercial & Institutional customers which offset lower mortgage balances. Customer deposit balances excluding central items increased by £6.1 billion in the first half. Our robust balance sheet means that we remain in a strong liquidity position, with an LCR of 151% representing £54.5 billion headroom above 100% minimum requirement, and an LDR (excl. repos and reverse repos) of 83%.

Our CET1 ratio remains within our targeted range at 13.6%, with total distributions announced of £1.7 billion in H1 2024. An interim dividend of 6 pence per share compares with 5.5 pence in the prior year.

Strong H1 and Q2 2024 performance

-   Total income increased by 5.3% in Q2 2024 to £3,659 million compared with Q1 2024 and decreased 7.7% in H1 2024 compared with H1 2023, impacted by FX recycling gains in the prior year. Total income excluding notable items was £176 million higher than Q1 2024 primarily reflecting increased deposit income and decreased £379 million, or 5.1%, in the first half compared with H1 2023 due to lower average deposit balances and mix changes throughout 2023, as customers moved towards interest bearing and term accounts, and lending margin pressure, which has eased in Q2 2024.

-   Q2 2024 NIM of 2.10% was 5 basis points higher than Q1 2024 primarily due to improved deposit margins. H1 2024 NIM was 16 basis points lower than H1 2023 principally reflecting mortgage margin pressure and deposit mix changes, as customers move from non-interest bearing to interest bearing accounts.

-   Total operating expenses for Q2 2024 were £47 million lower than Q1 2024 and £142 million higher in the first half of the year compared with H1 2023. Q2 2024 other operating expenses were £100 million lower than Q1 2024, or £21 million lower excluding costs in relation to bank levies of £87 million and the potential retail share offering. H1 2024 other operating expenses were £149 million higher than H1 2023, or £42 million, 1.1%, higher excluding costs in relation to the potential retail share offering of £24 million and additional bank levies of £83 million, reflecting increased staff costs due to inflation and severance costs, partially offset by ongoing simplification of our business and lower costs in relation to our withdrawal from the Republic of Ireland.


 

We remain committed to deliver on our full year cost guidance, excluding the impact of increased bank levies and costs in relation to the potential retail share offering.

-   A net impairment charge of £48 million in H1 2024 principally reflected broadly stable Stage 3 inflows partly offset by good book releases, including post model adjustments. Levels of default remain stable and at low levels across the portfolio despite inflationary pressures and the higher interest rate environment. Compared with Q1 2024, our ECL provision decreased by £0.3 billion to £3.3 billion and our ECL coverage ratio has decreased from 0.94% to 0.86%. We retain post model adjustments of £0.3 billion related to economic uncertainty, or 9.0% of total impairment provisions. Whilst we are comfortable with the strong credit performance of our book, we will continue to assess this position regularly and are closely monitoring the impacts of inflationary pressures, which have eased in the first half, on the UK economy and our customers.

-   As a result, we are pleased to report an attributable profit for H1 2024 of £2,099 million, with earnings per share of 24.2 pence and a RoTE of 16.4%. Q2 2024 RoTE was 18.5%.

Robust balance sheet with strong capital and liquidity levels

-   Net loans to customers excluding central items decreased by £1.7 billion in the quarter and decreased by £0.3 billion in the first half to £355.3 billion. Growth in Commercial Mid-market and Corporate & Institutions, net of UK Government scheme repayments of £1.0 billion in the first half, largely offset lower mortgage balances.

-   Up to 30 June 2024 we have provided £78.3 billion against our target to provide £100 billion climate and sustainable funding and financing between 1 July 2021 and the end of 2025. As part of this we aim to provide at least £10 billion in lending for EPC A and B rated residential properties between 1 January 2023 and the end of 2025. During H1 2024 we provided £16.3 billion climate and sustainable funding and financing, which included £1.4 billion in lending for EPC A and B rated residential properties.

-   Customer deposits excluding central items increased £5.2 billion in Q2 2024 and £6.1 billion in the first half of the year reflecting £3.5 billion growth in Retail Banking and £1.8 billion in Private Banking, largely in savings and other interest-bearing balances, and a £0.8 billion increase in Commercial & Institutional primarily within Commercial Mid-market. Term balances remained consistent in the quarter at 17% of our book and up from 16% at the end of 2023.



 

Chief Financial Officer review continued

-   The LCR was unchanged compared with Q1 2024 at 151%, representing £54.5 billion headroom above 100% minimum requirements primarily due to increased customer deposits offset by reduced wholesale funding and capital distributions (share buyback and dividends). Our primary liquidity at H1 2024 was £160.4 billion and £111.8 billion, or 70%, of this was cash and balances at central banks. Total wholesale funding decreased by £3.6 billion in the quarter to £83.0 billion.

-   TNAV per share increased by 12 pence in H1 2024 to 304 pence primarily reflecting the profit for the period partially offset by the 2023 final ordinary dividend of 11.5 pence.


 

Shareholder return supported strong capital generation

-   The CET1 ratio of 13.6% was 10 basis points higher than Q1 2024 principally reflecting the attributable profit for the quarter, c.60 basis points and a decrease in RWAs c.40 basis points, partially offset by distributions deducted from capital of c.90 basis points. CET1 was 20 basis points higher than 31 December 2023 largely reflecting the attributable profit and a £2.2 billion decrease in RWAs, partially offset by distributions. NatWest Group's minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) was 31.7%.

-   RWAs reduced by £5.5 billion in the second quarter of the year to £180.8 billion largely reflecting RWA management of £3.9 billion and decreased by £2.2 billion in the first half primarily due to RWA management of £4.3 billion, partially offset by the annual update to operational risk.

 



 


Business performance summary

Retail Banking

 


Half year ended

 

Quarter ended


30 June

30 June


30 June

31 March

30 June


2024

2023


2024

2024

2023


£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

Total income

2,690

3,120


1,365

1,325

1,516

Operating expenses

(1,470)

(1,367)


(697)

(773)

(671)

   of which: Other operating expenses

(1,457)

(1,343)

 

(690)

(767)

(650)

Impairment losses

(122)

(193)


(59)

(63)

(79)

Operating profit

1,098

1,560


609

489

766


 



 



Return on equity (1)

18.4%

29.1%


20.3%

16.5%

28.2%

Net interest margin (1)

2.26%

2.65%


2.31%

2.22%

2.56%

Cost:income ratio

 



 



   (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

54.2%

43.0%


50.5%

57.9%

42.9%

Loan impairment rate (1)

12bps

19bps


12bps

12bps

15bps


 



 




 



As at


 



30 June

31 March

31 December


 



2024

2024

2023





£bn

£bn

£bn

Net loans to customers (amortised cost)




203.3

203.5

205.2

Customer deposits




191.5

190.0

188.0

RWAs




62.3

62.5

61.6

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.

 

During H1 2024, Retail Banking delivered an operating profit of £1.1 billion and a return on equity of 18.4%. Q2 2024 showed positive income momentum with increased net interest margin from deposit margin expansion supporting improved profitability.

 

Retail Banking provided £1.3 billion of climate and sustainable funding and financing in H1 2024 from lending on properties with an EPC rating of A or B.

 


 

H1 2024 performance

-    Total income was £430 million, or 13.8%, lower than H1 2023 due to mortgage margin compression and the impact of the deposit balance mix shift from non-interest bearing to interest bearing balances, partly offset by lending growth and the impact of one more day in H1 2024.

-    Net interest margin was 39 basis points lower than H1 2023, largely reflecting mortgage margin compression and the impact of deposit balance mix shift.

-    Other operating expenses were £114 million, or 8.5%, higher than H1 2023 reflecting the Bank of England Levy, increased severance costs, and branch and property exit costs partly offset by savings from an 8.0% reduction in headcount.

-    An impairment charge of £122 million in H1 2024 was £71 million lower than H1 2023. The H1 2024 charge reflects a broadly stable Stage 3 charge, with the good book benefitting from post model adjustment releases.

-    Net loans to customers decreased £1.9 billion, or 0.9%, in H1 2024. Mortgage balances decreased by £2.5 billion as customer redemptions more than offset gross new lending. Personal advances decreased by £0.3 billion whilst cards balances increased by £0.7 billion in H1 2024 benefitting from new card issuance, as well as higher customer spend.

-    Customer deposits increased by £3.5 billion, or 1.9%, in H1 2024 reflecting growth in savings partly offset by lower current account balances.

-    RWAs increased by £0.7 billion, or 1.1%, in H1 2024 primarily due to the annual update for operational risk calculation, book movements and movement in risk parameters.

 

Q2 2024 performance

-    Total income was £40 million, or 3.0%, higher than Q1 2024 reflecting deposit margin expansion partly offset by the impact of the deposit balance mix shift from non-interest bearing to interest bearing balances and asset margin compression.

-    Net interest margin was 9 basis points higher than Q1 2024, largely reflecting improved deposit hedge income, partly offset by the impact of the deposit balance mix shift and asset margin compression.

-    Other operating expenses were £77 million, or 10.0%, lower than Q1 2024 reflecting the Bank of England Levy in Q1 2024 and lower strategic costs as well as savings from a 3.8% reduction in headcount.

-    An impairment charge of £59 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a Stage 3 charge broadly in line with Q1 2024, with the good book benefitting from post model adjustment releases.

-    Net loans to customers decreased by £0.2 billion, or 0.1%, lower than Q1 2024, driven by £0.7 billion lower mortgage balances, as redemptions more than offset stronger gross new lending, and personal advances decreased by £0.1 billion in Q2 2024; whilst cards balances increased by £0.4 billion in Q2 2024.

-    Customer deposits increased by £1.5 billion, or 0.8%, in Q2 2024 reflecting growth in savings partly offset by lower current account balances.

-    RWAs decreased by £0.2 billion, or 0.3%, in Q2 2024 primarily due to book movements.



 

Business performance summary continued

Private Banking


Half year ended

 

Quarter ended


30 June

30 June


30 June

31 March

30 June


2024

2023


2024

2024

2023


£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

Total income

444

567


236

208

271

Operating expenses

(356)

(322)


(175)

(181)

(167)

   of which: Other operating expenses

(355)

(311)

 

(175)

(180)

(159)

Impairment releases/(losses)

11

(11)


5

6

(3)

Operating profit

99

234


66

33

101


 



 



Return on equity (1)

10.5%

24.7%


14.4%

6.7%

20.8%

Net interest margin (1)

2.18%

3.13%


2.30%

2.06%

2.94%

Cost:income ratio 

 



 



   (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

80.0%

54.9%


74.2%

86.5%

58.7%

Loan impairment rate (1)

(12)bps

11bps


(11)bps

(13)bps

6bps

AUM net flows (£bn) (1)

1.0

1.0


0.6

0.4

0.4


 



 




 



As at


 



30 June

31 March

31 December


 



2024

2024

2023





£bn

£bn

£bn

Net loans to customers (amortised cost)




18.1

18.2

18.5

Customer deposits




39.5

37.8

37.7

RWAs




11.0

11.3

11.2

Assets under management (AUMs) (1)




34.7

33.6

31.7

Assets under administration (AUAs) (1)




10.4

9.5

9.1

Total assets under management and administration (AUMA) (1)


45.1

43.1

40.8

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.

 

During H1 2024, Private Banking delivered a return on equity of 10.5% and an operating profit of £99 million. Q2 2024 continued to see a positive performance in deposits and AUMA growth supporting improved profitability.

 

Private Banking provided £0.2 billion of climate and sustainable funding and financing in H1 2024, principally in relation to mortgages on residential properties with an EPC rating of A or B.


 

H1 2024 performance

-      Total income was £123 million, or 21.7% lower than H1 2023 reflecting the change in deposit mix, primarily during the second half of 2023, as customers migrated to savings products offering higher returns combined with a reduction in lending volumes. This was partly offset by an increase in investment income due to higher AUMA balances reflecting net inflows and favourable market movements.

-      Net interest margin was 95 basis points lower than H1 2023, largely reflecting a change in deposit mix.

-      Other operating expenses were £44 million, or 14.1%, higher than H1 2023 primarily reflecting increased technology and severance costs along with the Bank of England Levy. Staff costs have increased also due to inflationary pressure.

-      A net impairment release of £11 million, compared with an £11 million charge in H1 2023, largely reflects good book releases including benefits from post model adjustments with the Stage 3 charge broadly flat and remaining at low levels.

-      Net loans to customers decreased by £0.4 billion, or 2.2%, in H1 2024 driven by lower mortgage balances.

-      Customer deposits increased by £1.8 billion, or 4.8%, in H1 2024 reflecting strong above-market savings growth and short-term transitory inflows in Q2 2024 offsetting tax outflows in Q1 2024.

-      AUMA increased by £4.3 billion in H1 2024 to £45.1 billion, primarily driven by £2.9 billion positive market movements, and £1.0 billion AUM and £0.3 billion AUA net inflows.

Q2 2024 performance

-      Total income was £28 million, or 13.5%, higher than Q1 2024 primarily due to higher average deposit and AUMA balances, driving an increase in investment fee income and improved deposit income, partly offset by lower average lending balances.

-      Net interest margin was 24 basis points higher than Q1 2024 reflecting higher average deposit balances and improvement in deposit margin.

-      Other operating expenses were £5 million, or 2.8%, lower than Q1 2024 primarily due to the non-repeat of higher technology costs and the Bank of England Levy incurred in Q1 2024.

-      Net loans to customers decreased by £0.1 billion, or 0.5%, in Q2 2024 primarily due to lower mortgage balances.

-      Customer deposits increased by £1.7 billion, or 4.5%, compared with Q1 2024 driven by a strong performance on instant access savings, including short-term transitory inflows, partly offset by a small reduction on current accounts.

-      AUMA increased by £2.0 billion in Q2 2024, reflecting positive market movements of £0.9 billion supported by AUM net inflows of £0.6 billion and AUA inflows of £0.4 billion.



 

Business performance summary continued

Commercial & Institutional


Half year ended

 

Quarter ended


30 June

30 June


30 June

31 March

30 June


2024

2023


2024

2024

2023


£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

Net interest income

2,543

2,504


1,297

1,246

1,243

Non-interest income

1,257

1,244


644

613

552

Total income

3,800

3,748


1,941

1,859

1,795


 



 



Operating expenses

(2,150)

(1,987)


(1,099)

(1,051)

(984)

   of which: Other operating expenses

(2,073)

(1,893)

 

(1,053)

(1,020)

(934)

Impairment releases/(losses)

57

(20)


96

(39)

(64)

Operating profit

1,707

1,741


938

769

747


 



 



Return on equity (1)

16.2%

16.9%


17.8%

14.6%

14.3%

Net interest margin (1)

2.10%

2.06%


2.12%

2.07%

2.05%

Cost:income ratio 

 



 



   (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

54.6%

50.5%


54.3%

54.9%

52.0%

Loan impairment rate (1)

(8)bps

3bps


(28)bps

11bps

20bps


 



 




 



As at


 



30 June

31 March

31 December


 



2024

2024

2023





£bn

£bn

£bn

Net loans to customers (amortised cost)




133.9

135.3

131.9

Customer deposits




194.2

192.2

193.4

Funded assets (1)




315.5

321.7

306.9

RWAs




104.9

109.9

107.4

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.

 

In H1 2024, Commercial & Institutional continued to support customers with an increase in lending of 1.5% and delivered a strong performance in income and operating profit supporting a return on equity of 16.2%. Q2 2024 continued to see good client demand for lending, an increase in customer deposits supported by an improving UK deposit market and disciplined capital management delivering strong income and net interest margin growth supporting overall improved profitability.

 

Commercial & Institutional provided £14.9 billion of climate and sustainable funding and financing in H1 2024 to support customers investing in the transition to net zero.


 

H1 2024 performance

-      Total income was £52 million, or 1.4%, higher than H1 2023 due to strong client-driven capital markets activity, lending growth in Corporate & Institutions and Commercial Mid-market, partially offset by lower deposit returns reflecting the impact of the lower average volumes and balance mix shift.

-      Net interest margin was 4 basis points higher than H1 2023, largely reflecting one-off items partly offset by lower deposit returns.

-      Other operating expenses were £180 million, or 9.5%, higher than H1 2023 reflecting increased severance costs, the Bank of England Levy, and increased headcount as we continue to invest in the business.  

-      An impairment release of £57 million in H1 2024 reflecting good book releases with benefits from the revised economic outlook, post model adjustment releases, and benefits from capital management activity. Stage 3 charge remains at a low level.

-      Net loans to customers increased by £2.0 billion, or 1.5%, in H1 2024 largely reflecting a strong performance within Commercial Mid-market and Corporate & Institutions, partly offset by continued UK Government scheme repayments of £1.0 billion.

-      Customer deposits increased by £0.8 billion, or 0.4%, in H1 2024 reflecting an increase in Commercial Mid-market.

-      RWAs decreased by £2.5 billion, or 2.3%, in H1 2024 primarily due to RWA management of £3.7 billion, decreases in market risk and counterparty credit risk, partially offset by lending book growth and the annual update for operational risk.

 

Q2 2024 performance

-      Total income was £82 million, or 4.4%, higher than Q1 2024 primarily reflecting higher deposit income, average lending growth, and higher lending and payment fees. 

-      Net interest margin was 5 basis points higher than Q1 2024 reflecting higher deposit returns.

-      Other operating expenses were £33 million, or 3.2%, higher than Q1 2024 reflecting increased severance costs, partially offset by the Bank of England Levy in Q1 2024.

-      An impairment release of £96 million compared with a £39 million charge in Q1 2024, largely reflecting good book releases driven by benefits from the revised economic outlook, post model adjustment releases, and benefits from capital management activity.

-      Net loans to customers decreased by £1.4 billion, or 1.0%, in Q2 2024 as continued growth in Commercial Mid-Market was offset by lower balances in large Corporate & Institutions, with some customers taking advantage of stronger capital markets as well as continued UK Government scheme repayments of £0.5 billion.

-      Customer deposits increased by £2.0 billion, or 1.0%, in Q2 2024 reflecting an increase in Commercial Mid-market and Business Banking.

-      RWAs decreased by £5.0 billion, or 4.5%, compared with Q1 2024 primarily due to strong RWA management of £3.5 billion, decreases in market risk and counterparty credit risk, partially offset by lending book growth.



Business performance summary continued

Central items & other


Half year ended

 

Quarter ended


30 June

30 June


30 June

31 March

30 June


2024

2023


2024

2024

2023


£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

Continuing operations

 



 



Total income

200

292


117

83

269

Operating expenses 

(81)

(239)


(34)

(47)

(105)

   of which: Other operating expenses

(71)

(260)

 

(10)

(61)

(132)

   of which: Ulster Bank RoI direct expenses

(55)

(163)

 

(30)

(25)

(63)

Impairment releases/(losses)

6

1


3

3

(7)

Operating profit

125

54


86

39

157


 



 

As at

 


 



30 June

31 March

31 December


 



2024

2024

2023


 



£bn

£bn

£bn

Net loans to customers (amortised cost)



24.0

21.0

25.8

Customer deposits

 



7.8

12.8

12.3

RWAs

 



2.6

2.6

2.8


 

H1 2024 performance

-    Total income was £92 million lower than H1 2023 primarily reflecting £198 million lower notable items which included foreign exchange recycling gains in H1 2023 not repeated in H1 2024 and higher gains on interest and foreign exchange risk management derivatives not in accounting hedge relationships, partially offset with income in relation to our Ulster RoI business.

-    Other operating expenses were £189 million, or 72.7%, lower than H1 2023 primarily reflecting lower costs in relation to withdrawal from the Republic of Ireland.

-    Customer deposits decreased by £4.5 billion, or 36.6%, compared with Q4 2023 primarily reflecting repo activity in Treasury.

-    Net loans to customers decreased £1.8 billion to £24.0 billion in H1 2024 mainly due to reverse repo activity in Treasury.

Q2 2024 performance

-    Total income was £34 million higher than Q1 2024 primarily reflecting treasury income, a gain on surrender of a property, and income in relation to our Ulster RoI business.

-    Customer deposits decreased by £5.0 billion, or 39.1%, in Q2 2024 primarily reflecting repo activity in Treasury.



 

-    Net loans to customers increased by £3.0 billion in Q2 2024 mainly due to reverse repo activity in Treasury.


Segment performance

 

Half year ended 30 June 2024


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items

Total NatWest


Banking

Banking

Institutional

 & other

Group


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Continuing operations






Income statement 






Net interest income

2,475

285

2,543

105

5,408

Own credit adjustments

-

-

(7)

-

(7)

Other non-interest income

215

159

1,264

95

1,733

Total income 

2,690

444

3,800

200

7,134

Direct expenses

(381)

(126)

(764)

(2,685)

(3,956)

Indirect expenses

(1,076)

(229)

(1,309)

2,614

-

Other operating expenses

(1,457)

(355)

(2,073)

(71)

(3,956)

Litigation and conduct costs

(13)

(1)

(77)

(10)

(101)

Operating expenses

(1,470)

(356)

(2,150)

(81)

(4,057)

Operating profit before impairment losses/releases 

1,220

88

1,650

119

3,077

Impairment (losses)/releases

(122)

11

57

6

(48)

Operating profit

1,098

99

1,707

125

3,029


 

 

 

 

 

Income excluding notable items (1)

2,690

444

3,807

63

7,004


 

 

 

 

 

Additional information

 

 

 

 

 

Return on tangible equity (1)

na

na

na

na

16.4%

Return on equity (1)

18.4%

10.5%

16.2%

nm

na

Cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

54.2%

80.0%

54.6%

nm

55.5%

Total assets (£bn)

226.5

27.2

381.9

54.7

690.3

Funded assets (£bn) (1)

226.5

27.2

315.5

53.6

622.8

Net loans to customers - amortised cost (£bn)

203.3

18.1

133.9

24.0

379.3

Loan impairment rate (1)

12bps

(12)bps

(8)bps

nm

3bps

Impairment provisions (£bn)

(1.7)

(0.1)

(1.5)

-

(3.3)

Impairment provisions - Stage 3 (£bn)

(1.0)

-

(0.9)

(0.1)

(2.0)

Customer deposits (£bn)

191.5

39.5

194.2

7.8

433.0

Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) (£bn)

62.3

11.0

104.9

2.6

180.8

RWA equivalent (RWAe) (£bn)

63.1

11.0

106.7

3.1

183.9

Employee numbers (FTEs - thousands)

12.6

2.2

12.8

33.0

60.6

Third party customer asset rate (1)

3.88%

4.99%

6.77%

nm

nm

Third party customer funding rate (1)

(2.08%)

(3.14%)

(1.93%)

nm

nm

Average interest earning assets (£bn) (1)

220.1

26.3

244.0

na

524.4

Net interest margin (1)

2.26%

2.18%

2.10%

na

2.07%

nm = not meaningful, na = not applicable.

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.

 



 

Segment performance continued

 

Half year ended 30 June 2023


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items

Total NatWest


Banking

Banking

Institutional

 & other

Group


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Continuing operations






Income statement 






Net interest income

2,908

428

2,504

(114)

5,726

Own credit adjustments

-

-

9

-

9

Other non-interest income

212

139

1,235

406

1,992

Total income 

3,120

567

3,748

292

7,727

Direct expenses

(398)

(118)

(741)

(2,550)

(3,807)

Indirect expenses

(945)

(193)

(1,152)

2,290

-

Other operating expenses

(1,343)

(311)

(1,893)

(260)

(3,807)

Litigation and conduct costs

(24)

(11)

(94)

21

(108)

Operating expenses

(1,367)

(322)

(1,987)

(239)

(3,915)

Operating profit before impairment losses/releases 

1,753

245

1,761

53

3,812

Impairment (losses)/releases

(193)

(11)

(20)

1

(223)

Operating profit

1,560

234

1,741

54

3,589







Income excluding notable items (1)

3,120

567

3,739

(43)

7,383







Additional information






Return on tangible equity (1)

na

na

na

na

18.2%

Return on equity (1)

29.1%

24.7%

16.9%

nm

na

Cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

43.0%

54.9%

50.5%

nm

49.3%

Total assets (£bn)

229.1

27.3

401.5

44.7

702.6

Funded assets (£bn) (1)

229.1

27.3

320.6

43.7

620.7

Net loans to customers - amortised cost (£bn)

204.4

19.1

129.2

21.2

373.9

Loan impairment rate (1)

19bps

11bps

3bps

nm

12bps

Impairment provisions (£bn)

(1.7)

(0.1)

(1.5)

(0.1)

(3.4)

Impairment provisions - Stage 3 (£bn)

(1.0)

-

(0.8)

(0.1)

(1.9)

Customer deposits (£bn)

183.1

36.5

201.5

11.4

432.5

Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) (£bn)

57.3

11.5

103.6

5.1

177.5

RWA equivalent (RWAe) (£bn)

57.3

11.5

104.9

5.8

179.5

Employee numbers (FTEs - thousands)

13.7

2.3

12.6

32.9

61.5

Third party customer asset rate (1)

3.03%

4.24%

5.61%

nm

nm

Third party customer funding rate (1)

(1.02%)

(1.43%)

(1.03%)

nm

nm

Average interest earning assets (£bn) (1)

220.9

27.6

244.6

na

518.4

Net interest margin (1)

2.65%

3.13%

2.06%

na

2.23%

nm = not meaningful, na = not applicable.

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.



 

Segment performance continued

 

Quarter ended 30 June 2024


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items

Total NatWest


Banking

Banking

Institutional

 & other

Group


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Continuing operations

 

 

 

 

 

Income statement 






Net interest income

1,259

151

1,297

50

2,757

Own credit adjustments

-

-

(2)

-

(2)

Other non-interest income

106

85

646

67

904

Total income 

1,365

236

1,941

117

3,659

Direct expenses

(192)

(65)

(380)

(1,291)

(1,928)

Indirect expenses

(498)

(110)

(673)

1,281

-

Other operating expenses

(690)

(175)

(1,053)

(10)

(1,928)

Litigation and conduct costs

(7)

-

(46)

(24)

(77)

Operating expenses

(697)

(175)

(1,099)

(34)

(2,005)

Operating profit before impairment losses/releases 

668

61

842

83

1,654

Impairment (losses)/releases

(59)

5

96

3

45

Operating profit

609

66

938

86

1,699


 

 

 

 

 

Income excluding notable items (1)

1,365

236

1,943

46

3,590


 

 

 

 

 

Additional information

 

 

 

 

 

Return on tangible equity (1)

na

na

na

na

18.5%

Return on equity (1)

20.3%

14.4%

17.8%

nm

na

Cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

50.5%

74.2%

54.3%

nm

52.7%

Total assets (£bn)

226.5

27.2

381.9

54.7

690.3

Funded assets (£bn) (1)

226.5

27.2

315.5

53.6

622.8

Net loans to customers - amortised cost (£bn)

203.3

18.1

133.9

24.0

379.3

Loan impairment rate (1)

12bps

(11)bps

(28)bps

nm

(5)bps

Impairment provisions (£bn)

(1.7)

(0.1)

(1.5)

-

(3.3)

Impairment provisions - Stage 3 (£bn)

(1.0)

-

(0.9)

(0.1)

(2.0)

Customer deposits (£bn)

191.5

39.5

194.2

7.8

433.0

Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) (£bn)

62.3

11.0

104.9

2.6

180.8

RWA equivalent (RWAe) (£bn)

63.1

11.0

106.7

3.1

183.9

Employee numbers (FTEs - thousands)

12.6

2.2

12.8

33.0

60.6

Third party customer asset rate (1)

3.97%

5.01%

6.73%

nm

nm

Third party customer funding rate (1)

(2.10%)

(3.15%)

(1.93%)

nm

nm

Average interest earning assets (£bn) (1)

219.6

26.5

246.0

na

527.6

Net interest margin (1)

2.31%

2.30%

2.12%

na

2.10%

nm = not meaningful, na = not applicable.

(1)         Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.



 

Segment performance continued

 

Quarter ended 31 March 2024


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items

Total NatWest


Banking

Banking

Institutional

 & other

Group


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Continuing operations






Income statement 






Net interest income

1,216

134

1,246

55

2,651

Own credit adjustments

-

-

(5)

-

(5)

Other non-interest income

109

74

618

28

829

Total income 

1,325

208

1,859

83

3,475

Direct expenses

(189)

(61)

(384)

(1,394)

(2,028)

Indirect expenses

(578)

(119)

(636)

1,333

-

Other operating expenses

(767)

(180)

(1,020)

(61)

(2,028)

Litigation and conduct costs

(6)

(1)

(31)

14

(24)

Operating expenses

(773)

(181)

(1,051)

(47)

(2,052)

Operating profit before impairment losses/releases 

552

27

808

36

1,423

Impairment (losses)/releases

(63)

6

(39)

3

(93)

Operating profit

489

33

769

39

1,330







Income excluding notable items (1)

1,325

208

1,864

17

3,414







Additional information






Return on tangible equity (1)

na

na

na

na

14.2%

Return on equity (1)

16.5%

6.7%

14.6%

nm

na

Cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

57.9%

86.5%

54.9%

nm

58.4%

Total assets (£bn)

226.4

26.5

388.8

55.8

697.5

Funded assets (£bn) (1)

226.4

26.5

321.7

54.7

629.3

Net loans to customers - amortised cost (£bn)

203.5

18.2

135.3

21.0

378.0

Loan impairment rate (1)

12bps

(13)bps

11bps

nm

10bps

Impairment provisions (£bn)

(1.9)

(0.1)

(1.5)

(0.1)

(3.6)

Impairment provisions - Stage 3 (£bn)

(1.2)

-

(0.8)

-

(2.0)

Customer deposits (£bn)

190.0

37.8

192.2

12.8

432.8

Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) (£bn)

62.5

11.3

109.9

2.6

186.3

RWA equivalent (RWAe) (£bn)

62.6

11.3

111.1

3.1

188.1

Employee numbers (FTEs - thousands)

13.1

2.2

12.7

33.3

61.3

Third party customer asset rate (1)

3.79%

4.97%

6.81%

nm

nm

Third party customer funding rate (1)

(2.05%)

(3.14%)

(1.93%)

nm

nm

Average interest earning assets (£bn) (1)

220.6

26.2

241.9

na

521.1

Net interest margin (1)

2.22%

2.06%

2.07%

na

2.05%

nm = not meaningful, na = not applicable.

(1)     Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.



 

Segment performance continued

 

Quarter ended 30 June 2023


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items

Total NatWest


Banking

Banking

Institutional

 & other

Group


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Continuing operations






Income statement 






Net interest income

1,416

199

1,243

(34)

2,824

Own credit adjustments

-

-

3

-

3

Other non-interest income

100

72

549

303

1,024

Total income 

1,516

271

1,795

269

3,851

Direct expenses

(187)

(58)

(381)

(1,249)

(1,875)

Indirect expenses

(463)

(101)

(553)

1,117

-

Other operating expenses

(650)

(159)

(934)

(132)

(1,875)

Litigation and conduct costs

(21)

(8)

(50)

27

(52)

Operating expenses

(671)

(167)

(984)

(105)

(1,927)

Operating profit before impairment losses 

845

104

811

164

1,924

Impairment losses

(79)

(3)

(64)

(7)

(153)

Operating profit 

766

101

747

157

1,771







Income excluding notable items (1)

1,516

271

1,792

(16)

3,563







Additional information






Return on tangible equity (1)

na

na

na

na

16.4%

Return on equity (1)

28.2%

20.8%

14.3%

nm

na

Cost:income ratio (excl. litigation and conduct) (1)

42.9%

58.7%

52.0%

nm

48.7%

Total assets (£bn)

229.1

27.3

401.5

44.7

702.6

Funded assets (£bn) (1)

229.1

27.3

320.6

43.7

620.7

Net loans to customers - amortised cost (£bn)

204.4

19.1

129.2

21.2

373.9

Loan impairment rate (1)

15bps

6bps

20bps

nm

16bps

Impairment provisions (£bn)

(1.7)

(0.1)

(1.5)

(0.1)

(3.4)

Impairment provisions - Stage 3 (£bn)

(1.0)

-

(0.8)

(0.1)

(1.9)

Customer deposits (£bn)

183.1

36.5

201.5

11.4

432.5

Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) (£bn)

57.3

11.5

103.6

5.1

177.5

RWA equivalent (RWAe) (£bn)

57.3

11.5

104.9

5.8

179.5

Employee numbers (FTEs - thousands)

13.7

2.3

12.6

32.9

61.5

Third party customer asset rate (1)

3.11%

4.41%

5.84%

nm

nm

Third party customer funding rate (1)

(1.20%)

(1.71%)

(1.18%)

nm

nm

Average interest earning assets (£bn) (1)

221.5

27.1

243.2

na

514.5

Net interest margin (1)

2.56%

2.94%

2.05%

na

2.20%

nm - not meaningful, na - not applicable

(1)       Refer to the Non-IFRS financial measures appendix for details of the basis of preparation and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures and performance metrics.


Risk and capital management

Certain disclosures in the Risk and capital management section are within the scope of EY's review report and are marked as 'reviewed' in the section header.

Credit risk

Economic loss drivers (reviewed)

Introduction

The portfolio segmentation and selection of economic loss drivers for IFRS 9 follows the approach used in stress testing. To enable robust modelling, the forecasting models for each portfolio segment (defined by product or asset class and where relevant, industry sector and region) are based on a selected, small number of economic variables (typically three to four) that best explain the movements in portfolio loss rates. The process to select economic loss drivers involves empirical analysis and expert judgement.

The most significant economic loss drivers for the most material portfolios are shown in the table below:

UK Personal mortgages

Unemployment rate, sterling swap rate, house price index, real wage

UK Personal unsecured

Unemployment rate, sterling swap rate, real wage

UK corporates

Stock price index, gross domestic product (GDP)

UK commercial real estate

Stock price index, commercial property price index, GDP

 

Economic scenarios

At 30 June 2024, the range of anticipated future economic conditions was defined by a set of four internally developed scenarios and their respective probabilities. In addition to the base case, they comprised upside, downside and extreme downside scenarios. The scenarios primarily reflected the current risks faced by the economy, particularly in relation to the path of inflation and interest rates.

For 30 June 2024, the four scenarios were deemed appropriate in capturing the uncertainty in economic forecasts and the non-linearity in outcomes under different scenarios. These four scenarios were developed to provide sufficient coverage across potential rises in unemployment, inflation, asset price declines and the degree of permanent damage to the economy, around which there remains pronounced levels of uncertainty.

Upside - This scenario assumes robust growth as inflation falls sharply and rates are lowered quicker than expected. Consumer spending is supported by quicker recovery in household income, and further helped by higher consumer confidence, fiscal support and strong business investment. The labour market remains resilient with the unemployment rate falling. The housing market shows robust growth.


 

Compared to 31 December 2023, the upside scenario remains similarly configured, exploring a more benign set of economic outcomes, including a stronger performing stock market, real estate prices, and supported by a stronger global growth backdrop, relative to the base case view.

Base case - Continued declining inflation allows an easing cycle to start in the second half of 2024. The unemployment rate rises modestly over 2024 but there are no wide-spread job losses. Inflation remains very close to the current level of 2% through the forecast period. Economic output also experiences modest but stable growth in contrast to the stagnation of recent years. The housing market experiences modest nominal price increase. Housing market activity gradually strengthens as interest rates fall and real incomes recover.

Since 31 December 2023, the economic outlook has improved as household income continued to recover, and the labour market remained resilient. The declining inflation trend has continued, albeit the progress was slower than expected. As a result, rates are expected to remain higher-for-longer than previously expected. The unemployment rate still rises but the peak is marginally lower and is underpinned by a resilient labour market. House prices were assumed to decline previously in 2024, but there has been a better-than-expected recovery in early 2024 and prices are now expected to show a modest increase.

Downside - Core inflation remains persistently high leading to resurgent inflation. The economy experiences a recession as consumer confidence weakens due to a fall in real incomes. Interest rates are raised higher than the base case and remain higher-for-longer. High rates are assumed to have a more significant impact on the labour market. Unemployment is higher than the base case scenario while house prices lose approximately ten percent of their value.

Compared to 31 December 2023, the downside scenario is similarly configured and explores risks associated with high inflation and significantly higher interest rates across the period.

Extreme downside - This scenario assumes a significant economic downturn with a loss of consumer confidence leading to a deep economic recession. This results in widespread job losses with the unemployment rate rising above the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, further compounding consumer weakness. Rates are cut sharply in response to the demand shock, leading to some support to the recovery. House prices lose approximately a third of their value.

Compared to 31 December 2023, the extreme downside is similarly configured with an extreme set of economic outcomes, low interest rates, very sharp falls in asset prices and a marked deterioration in the labour market.




 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Economic loss drivers (reviewed)

The main macroeconomic variables for each of the four scenarios used for expected credit loss (ECL) modelling are set out in the main macroeconomic variables table below.

Main macroeconomic variables

30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023





Extreme

Weighted

 




Extreme

Weighted


Upside

Base case

Downside

downside

average

 

Upside

Base case

Downside

downside

average

Five-year summary

%

%

%

%

%

 

%

%

%

%

%

GDP

1.9

1.2

0.6

(0.2)

1.1


1.8

1.0

0.5

(0.3)

0.9

Unemployment rate

3.5

4.3

5.4

7.1

4.7

 

3.5

4.6

5.2

6.8

4.8

House price index

5.3

3.3

1.0

(4.2)

2.5

 

3.9

0.3

(0.4)

(5.7)

0.3

Commercial real estate price

4.4

1.2

(0.7)

(5.1)

0.8

 

3.1

(0.2)

(2.0)

(6.8)

(0.6)

Consumer price index

1.1

2.1

4.8

1.3

2.3

 

1.7

2.6

5.2

1.8

2.8

Bank of England base rate

3.3

3.7

5.7

2.6

3.8

 

3.8

3.7

5.6

2.9

4.0

Stock price index

4.7

3.3

1.3

0.2

2.8

 

4.8

3.3

1.2

(0.4)

2.8

World GDP

3.7

3.1

2.7

1.8

3.0

 

3.7

3.2

2.7

1.8

3.0

Probability weight

22.0

45.0

19.4

13.6

 


21.2

45.0

20.4

13.4


 

(1)       The five-year summary runs from 2024-2028 for 30 June 2024 and from 2023-27 for 31 December 2023.

(2)       The table shows compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for GDP, average levels for the unemployment rate and Bank of England base rate and Q4 to Q4 CAGR for other parameters.

 


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Economic loss drivers (reviewed)

Climate transition

In 2023, NatWest Group for the first time explicitly included assumptions about the changes in transition policy, in the base case macroeconomic scenario. Last year, an economy-wide implicit carbon price, consistent with the CCC Balanced Net Zero Scenario, was applied to all sectors. During the first half of 2024, NatWest Group continued to add climate policy and technology related transition assumptions into its base case macroeconomic scenario used for financial planning. As in 2023, this process included an assessment of ECL in this IFRS 9 reporting period. This resulted in climate transition policy contributing £5.4 million to total ECL, compared with an increase in ECL of less than £1 million at the end of 2023.

In 2024, NatWest Group refined the approach. In this reporting period, NatWest Group calculated expected implicit carbon prices associated with specific climate transition policies. NatWest Group has individually assessed 46 active and potential transition policies that will have a significant impact on the cost of emissions and converted them into equivalent sectoral carbon prices, calculated as the cost per tonne of the emissions abated, as a result of each policy. This approach enables NatWest Group to estimate an aggregate macroeconomic impact of the transition policies, and as a result, ECL.

NatWest Group and its customers have a dependency on timely and appropriate government policies to provide the necessary impetus for technology development and customer behaviour changes, to enable the UK's successful transition to net zero. Policy delays and the risks outlined in the UK CCC 2022 and 2023 Progress Reports, if not adequately addressed in a timely manner, put at risk the UK's net zero transition and in turn, that of NatWest Group and its customers.


 

Probability weightings of scenarios

NatWest Group's quantitative approach to IFRS 9 multiple economic scenarios (MES) involves selecting a suitable set of discrete scenarios to characterise the distribution of risks in the economic outlook and assigning appropriate probability weights. This quantitative approach is used for 30 June 2024.

The approach involves comparing GDP paths for NatWest Group's scenarios against a set of 1,000 model runs, following which, a percentile in the distribution is established that most closely corresponded to the scenario. Probability weight for base case is set first based on judgement, while probability weights for the alternate scenarios are assigned based on these percentiles scores.

The assigned probability weights were judged to be aligned with the subjective assessment of balance of the risks in the economy. The weights were broadly comparable to those used at 31 December 2023 but with slightly less downside skew. This is reasonable as the inflation outturn since then has been encouraging, with inflation continuing to decline and a reduced risk of stagflation. However, the risks of persistent inflation remain elevated and there is considerable uncertainty in the economic outlook, particularly with respect to persistence and the range of outcomes on inflation. Given that backdrop, NatWest Group judges it appropriate that downside-biased scenarios have higher combined probability weights than the upside-biased scenario. It presents good coverage to the range of outcomes assumed in the scenarios, including the potential for a robust recovery on the upside and exceptionally challenging outcomes on the downside. A 22% weighting was applied to the upside scenario, a 45% weighting applied to the base case scenario, a 19.4% weighting applied to the downside scenario and a 13.6% weighting applied to the extreme downside scenario.


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Economic loss drivers (reviewed)

Annual figures


 

 

 

Extreme

Weighted


Upside

Base case

Downside

downside

average

GDP - annual growth

%

%

%

%

%

2024

1.7

0.7

0.1

-

0.7

2025

3.9

1.2

(0.9)

(4.0)

0.7

2026

1.4

1.4

1.1

0.9

1.3

2027

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

2028

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

2029

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3







Unemployment rate






 - annual average

 

 

 

 

 

2024

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.4

2025

3.4

4.4

5.7

7.8

4.9

2026

3.2

4.3

5.7

8.3

4.9

2027

3.3

4.3

5.5

7.7

4.7

2028

3.3

4.2

5.4

7.1

4.6

2029

3.3

4.2

5.3

6.8

4.6







House price index






 - four quarter change 

 

 

 

 

 

2024

6.8

3.1

(1.2)

(3.3)

2.2

2025

8.9

3.1

(6.0)

(13.2)

0.6

2026

4.5

3.4

1.0

(14.5)

1.3

2027

3.1

3.4

6.6

5.4

4.1

2028

3.5

3.4

5.2

6.8

4.1

2029

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4







Commercial real estate price






 - four quarter change 

 

 

 

 

 

2024

6.2

(1.3)

(4.2)

(7.7)

(1.1)

2025

5.5

1.7

(8.0)

(30.8)

(3.4)

2026

4.6

2.0

3.1

3.3

3.0

2027

3.8

2.2

3.4

7.8

3.3

2028

1.8

1.5

3.0

8.5

2.5

2029

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

 

 



 

 

 

Extreme

Weighted

Consumer price index

Upside

Base case

Downside

downside

average

 - four quarter change

%

%

%

%

%

2024

1.4

2.1

5.7

0.1

2.4

2025

0.5

2.1

6.7

0.5

2.5

2026

1.3

2.0

4.4

2.0

2.4

2027

1.2

2.0

3.8

2.0

2.2

2028

1.1

2.0

3.7

2.0

2.2

2029

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0







Bank of England base rate






 - annual average

 

 

 

 

 

2024

4.83

5.10

5.50

4.69

5.06

2025

3.46

4.06

6.35

2.38

4.14

2026

2.85

3.08

5.83

2.00

3.42

2027

2.75

3.00

5.50

2.00

3.29

2028

2.75

3.00

5.19

2.06

3.24

2029

2.75

3.00

5.00

2.25

3.23







Stock price index






 - four quarter change

 

 

 

 

 

2024

6.8

3.3

(11.0)

(27.7)

(2.9)

2025

5.7

3.3

(1.5)

(7.4)

1.9

2026

4.1

3.3

8.6

21.2

6.0

2027

3.6

3.3

6.5

12.9

4.9

2028

3.2

3.3

5.3

10.2

4.4

2029

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Economic loss drivers (reviewed)

Worst points


 

 

Extreme

 

Weighted


Downside

 

downside

 

average

30 June 2024

%

Quarter

%

Quarter

%

GDP

(0.9)

Q1 2025

(4.2)

Q2 2025

0.6

Unemployment rate - peak

5.8

Q3 2025

8.5

Q4 2025

5.0

House price index

(8.0)

Q2 2026

(28.2)

Q4 2026

1.1

Commercial real estate price

(11.9)

Q3 2025

(36.5)

Q1 2026

(4.4)

Consumer price index

 

 

 

 

 

   - highest four quarter change

8.5

Q2 2025

3.5

Q1 2024

3.5

Bank of England base rate

 

 

 

 

 

   - extreme level

6.5

Q2 2025

5.3

Q1 2024

5.3

Stock price index

(16.0)

Q2 2025

(40.5)

Q2 2025

(4.2)

 


31 December 2023






GDP

(1.2)

Q3 2024

(4.5)

Q4 2024

0.3

Unemployment rate - peak

5.8

Q1 2025

8.5

Q2 2025

5.2

House price index

(12.5)

Q4 2025

(31.7)

Q2 2026

(6.5)

Commercial real estate price

(16.6)

Q1 2025

(39.9)

Q3 2025

(10.2)

Consumer price index






   - highest four quarter change

10.3

Q1 2023

10.3

Q1 2023

10.3

Bank of England base rate






   - extreme level

6.5

Q4 2024

5.3

Q4 2023

5.3

Stock price index

(14.3)

Q4 2024

(39.3)

Q4 2024

(2.4)

 

(1)     Unless specified otherwise, the figures show falls relative to the starting period. The calculations are performed over five years, with a starting point of Q4 2023 for 30 June 2024 scenarios and Q4 2022 for 31 December 2023 scenarios.

 

Use of the scenarios in Personal lending

Personal lending follows a discrete scenario approach. The probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD), loss given default (LGD) and resultant ECL for each discrete scenario is calculated using product specific economic response models. Probability weighted averages across the suite of economic scenarios are then calculated for each of the model outputs, with the weighted PD being used for staging purposes.

Business Banking utilises the Personal lending methodology rather than the Wholesale lending methodology.


 

Use of the scenarios in Wholesale lending

Wholesale lending follows a continuous scenario approach to calculate ECL. PD and LGD values arising from multiple economic forecasts (based on the concept of credit cycle indices) are simulated around the central projection. The central projection is a weighted average of economic scenarios with the scenarios translated into credit cycle indices using the Wholesale economic response models.

 

UK economic uncertainty

The high inflation environment alongside high interest rates are presenting significant headwinds for some businesses and consumers, in many cases compounding. These cost pressures remain a feature of the economic environment, though they are expected to moderate over 2024 and 2025 in the base case scenario. NatWest Group has considered where these are most likely to affect the customer base, with the cost of borrowing during 2023 and 2024 for both businesses and consumers presenting an additional affordability challenge.

 

The effects of these risks are not expected to be fully captured by forward-looking credit modelling, particularly given the high inflation environment, low unemployment base case outlook. Any incremental ECL effects for these risks will be captured via post model adjustments and are detailed further in the Governance and post model adjustments section.

 

Governance and post model adjustments (reviewed)

The IFRS 9 PD, EAD and LGD models are subject to NatWest Group's model risk policy that stipulates periodic model monitoring, periodic re-validation and defines approval procedures and authorities according to model materiality. Various post model adjustments were applied where management judged they were necessary to ensure an adequate level of overall ECL provision. All post model adjustments were subject to review, challenge and approval through model or provisioning committees.

 

Post model adjustments will remain a key focus area of NatWest Group's ongoing ECL adequacy assessment process. A holistic framework has been established including reviewing a range of economic data, external benchmark information and portfolio performance trends with a particular focus on segments of the portfolio (both commercial and consumer) that are likely to be more susceptible to high inflation, high interest rates and supply chain disruption.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Economic loss drivers (reviewed)

ECL post model adjustments

The table below shows ECL post model adjustments.


Retail Banking


Private

Commercial &

Central items

 


Mortgages

Other

 

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Deferred model calibrations

-

-

 

1

16

-

17

Economic uncertainty

79

43

 

8

168

4

302

Other adjustments

-

-

 

-

3

-

3

Total

79

43

 

9

187

4

322


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- Stage 1

36

18

 

5

78

4

141

- Stage 2

33

25

 

4

107

-

169

- Stage 3

10

-

 

-

2

-

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 December 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deferred model calibrations

-

-


1

23

-

24

Economic uncertainty

118

39


13

256

3

429

Other adjustments

1

-


-

8

23

32

Total

119

39


14

287

26

485

Of which:



 





- Stage 1

75

14

 

6

115

10

220

- Stage 2

31

25

 

8

167

9

240

- Stage 3

13

-

 

-

5

7

25

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

ECL post model adjustments

Post model adjustments decreased significantly since 31 December 2023, reflecting reduced economic uncertainty from inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and liquidity.

-    Retail Banking - The post model adjustment for economic uncertainty decreased to £122 million (31 December 2023 - £157 million). This reduction primarily reflected a revision to the cost of living post model adjustment to £111 million (31 December 2023 - £144 million), supported by back-testing of default outcomes for higher risk segments. The cost of living post model adjustment captures the risk on segments in the Retail Banking portfolio that are more susceptible to the effects of cost of living rises. It focuses on key affordability lenses, including customers with lower income in fuel poverty, over-indebted borrowers and customers vulnerable to a potential mortgage rate shock.

 

-    Commercial & Institutional - The post model adjustment for economic uncertainty decreased to £168 million (31 December 2023 - £256 million). The inflation, supply chain and liquidity post model adjustment of £136 million (31 December 2023 - £206 million) was maintained for lending prior to 1 January 2024, with a sector-level downgrade being applied to the sectors that were considered most at risk from the ongoing pressures from inflation and ongoing concerns around reducing cash reserves across many sectors. The £70 million reduction reflected the reduced risk along with portfolio improvements and exposure reduction.

 

-    A £32 million (31 December 2023 - £50 million) post model adjustment to cover the residual risks from COVID-19 remains for the risks surrounding associated debt to customers that have utilised government support schemes. This adjustment is reducing as customers default or repay.

 

-    The £16 million (31 December 2023 - £23 million) judgemental overlay for deferred model calibrations relates to refinance risk, with the existing mechanistic modelling approach not fully capturing the risk on deteriorated exposures.

 

-    Central items & other - A £23 million post model adjustment in other adjustments was removed in the period, reflecting the withdrawal from the Republic of Ireland.

 


 

Measurement uncertainty and ECL sensitivity analysis (reviewed)

The recognition and measurement of ECL is complex and involves the use of significant judgment and estimation, particularly in times of economic volatility and uncertainty. This includes the formulation and incorporation of multiple forward-looking economic conditions into ECL to meet the measurement objective of IFRS 9. The ECL provision is sensitive to the model inputs and economic assumptions underlying the estimate.

The impact arising from the base case, upside, downside and extreme downside scenarios was simulated. These scenarios are used in the methodology for Personal multiple economic scenarios as described in the Economic loss drivers section. In the simulations, NatWest Group has assumed that the economic macro variables associated with these scenarios replace the existing base case economic assumptions, giving them a 100% probability weighting and therefore serving as a single economic scenario.

These scenarios were applied to all modelled portfolios in the analysis below, with the simulation impacting both PDs and LGDs. Post model adjustments included in the ECL estimates that were modelled were sensitised in line with the modelled ECL movements, but those that were judgmental in nature, primarily those for deferred model calibrations and economic uncertainty, were not (refer to the Governance and post model adjustments section) on the basis these would be re-evaluated by management through ECL governance for any new economic scenario outlook and not be subject to an automated calculation. As expected, the scenarios create differing impacts on ECL by portfolio and the impacts are deemed reasonable. In this simulation, it is assumed that existing modelled relationships between key economic variables and loss drivers hold, but in practice other factors would also have an impact, for example, potential customer behaviour changes and policy changes by lenders that might impact on the wider availability of credit.

The focus of the simulations is on ECL provisioning requirements on performing exposures in Stage 1 and Stage 2. The simulations are run on a stand-alone basis and are independent of each other; the potential ECL impacts reflect the simulated impact at 30 June 2024. Scenario impacts on SICR should be considered when evaluating the ECL movements of Stage 1 and Stage 2. In all scenarios the total exposure was the same but exposure by stage varied in each scenario.

Stage 3 provisions are not subject to the same level of measurement uncertainty - default is an observed event as at the balance sheet date. Stage 3 provisions therefore were not considered in this analysis.

NatWest Group's core criterion to identify a SICR is founded on PD deterioration. Under the simulations, PDs change and result in exposures moving between Stage 1 and Stage 2 contributing to the ECL impact.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Measurement uncertainty and ECL sensitivity analysis (reviewed)

 

 

 

Moderate

Moderate

Extreme

 

 

Base

upside

 downside

downside

30 June 2024

Actual

scenario

scenario

scenario

scenario

Stage 1 modelled loans (£m)






Retail Banking - mortgages

166,944

167,405

167,829

164,061

157,458

Retail Banking - unsecured

9,941

10,025

10,142

9,696

9,019

Wholesale - property

27,589

27,635

27,769

27,277

23,732

Wholesale - non-property

130,655

131,355

131,829

128,798

109,550


335,129

336,420

337,569

329,832

299,759

Stage 1 modelled ECL (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

47

45

44

46

44

Retail Banking - unsecured

228

219

202

250

243

Wholesale - property

73

54

41

99

148

Wholesale - non-property

219

189

158

268

337


567

507

445

663

772

Stage 1 coverage

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

0.03%

Retail Banking - unsecured

2.29%

2.18%

1.99%

2.58%

2.69%

Wholesale - property

0.26%

0.20%

0.15%

0.36%

0.62%

Wholesale - non-property

0.17%

0.14%

0.12%

0.21%

0.31%


0.17%

0.15%

0.13%

0.20%

0.26%

Stage 2 modelled loans (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

20,315

19,854

19,430

23,198

29,801

Retail Banking - unsecured

3,097

3,013

2,896

3,342

4,019

Wholesale - property

3,052

3,006

2,872

3,364

6,909

Wholesale - non-property

10,983

10,283

9,809

12,840

32,088


37,447

36,156

35,007

42,744

72,817

Stage 2 modelled ECL (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

68

61

55

82

123

Retail Banking - unsecured

390

361

315

455

596

Wholesale - property

64

56

49

80

186

Wholesale - non-property

269

233

202

343

641


791

711

621

960

1,546

Stage 2 coverage

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

0.33%

0.31%

0.28%

0.35%

0.41%

Retail Banking - unsecured

12.59%

11.98%

10.88%

13.61%

14.83%

Wholesale - property

2.10%

1.86%

1.71%

2.38%

2.69%

Wholesale - non-property

2.45%

2.27%

2.06%

2.67%

2.00%


2.11%

1.97%

1.77%

2.25%

2.12%

Stage 1 and Stage 2 modelled loans (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

187,259

187,259

187,259

187,259

187,259

Retail Banking - unsecured

13,038

13,038

13,038

13,038

13,038

Wholesale - property

30,641

30,641

30,641

30,641

30,641

Wholesale - non-property

141,638

141,638

141,638

141,638

141,638


372,576

372,576

372,576

372,576

372,576

 

 

 

Moderate

Moderate

Extreme

 

 

Base

upside

 downside

downside

30 June 2024

Actual

scenario

scenario

scenario

scenario

Stage 1 and Stage 2 modelled ECL (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

115

106

99

128

167

Retail Banking - unsecured

618

580

517

705

839

Wholesale - property

137

110

90

179

334

Wholesale - non-property

488

422

360

611

978

 

1,358

1,218

1,066

1,623

2,318

Stage 1 and Stage 2 coverage

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Banking - mortgages

0.06%

0.06%

0.05%

0.07%

0.09%

Retail Banking - unsecured

4.74%

4.45%

3.97%

5.41%

6.44%

Wholesale - property

0.45%

0.36%

0.29%

0.58%

1.09%

Wholesale - non-property

0.34%

0.30%

0.25%

0.43%

0.69%


0.36%

0.33%

0.29%

0.44%

0.62%

Reconciliation to Stage 1 and 

 

 

 

 

 

   Stage 2 ECL (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

ECL on modelled exposures

1,358

1,218

1,066

1,623

2,318

ECL on UBIDAC modelled exposures

-

-

-

-

-

ECL on non-modelled exposures

29

29

29

29

29


 

 

 

 

 

Total Stage 1 and Stage 2 ECL (£m)

1,387

1,247

1,095

1,652

2,347

Variance to actual total Stage 1 and

 

 

 

 

 

   Stage 2 ECL (£m)

 

(140)

(292)

265

960


 

 

 

 

 

Reconciliation to Stage 1 and 

 

 

 

 

 

   Stage 2 flow exposure (£m)

 

 

 

 

 

Modelled loans

372,576

372,576

372,576

372,576

372,576

UBIDAC loans

69

69

69

69

69

Non-modelled loans

18,881

18,881

18,881

18,881

18,881

Other asset classes

145,136

145,136

145,136

145,136

145,136

 

(1)     Variations in future undrawn exposure values across the scenarios are modelled, however, the exposure position reported is that used to calculate modelled ECL as at 30 June 2024 and therefore does not include variation in future undrawn exposure values.

(2)     Reflects ECL for all modelled exposure in scope for IFRS 9. The analysis excludes non-modelled portfolios and exposure relating to bonds and cash.

(3)     Exposures related to Ulster Bank RoI continuing operations were not included in the simulations, the current Ulster Bank RoI ECL was included across all scenarios to enable reconciliation to other disclosures.

(4)     All simulations were run on a stand-alone basis and are independent of each other, with the potential ECL impact reflecting the simulated impact as at 30 June 2024. The simulations change the composition of Stage 1 and Stage 2 exposure but total exposure is unchanged under each scenario as the loan population is static.

(5)     Refer to the Economic loss drivers section for details of economic scenarios.

(6)     Refer to the NatWest Group plc 2023 Annual Report and Accounts for 31 December 2023 comparatives.

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk continued

Measurement uncertainty and ECL adequacy (reviewed)

-    If the economics were as negative as observed in the extreme downside (i.e. 100% probability weighting), total Stage 1 and Stage 2 ECL was simulated to increase by around £1.0 billion (approximately 69%). In this scenario, Stage 2 exposure nearly doubled and was the key driver of the simulated ECL rise. The movement in Stage 2 balances in the other simulations was far less significant and the impact to ECL less material.

-    In the Wholesale portfolio, there was a significant increase in ECL under the extreme downside scenario. The Wholesale property ECL increase was mainly due to commercial real estate prices which showed negative growth particularly in 2025 and significant deterioration in the stock index in 2024 and 2025. The non-property increase was mainly due to GDP contraction in 2025 and significant deterioration in the stock index.

-    Given that continued uncertainty remained due to persistent inflation, high interest rates and liquidity concerns at H1 2024, NatWest Group utilised a framework of quantitative and qualitative measures to support the levels of ECL coverage. This included economic data, credit performance insights, supply chain contagion analysis and problem debt trends. This was particularly important for consideration of post model adjustments.

-    As the effects of these economic risks evolve during 2024, there is a risk of further credit deterioration. However, the income statement effect of this should have been mitigated by the forward-looking provisions retained on the balance sheet at 30 June 2024.

-    There are a number of key factors that could drive further downside to impairments, through deteriorating economic and credit metrics and increased stage migration as credit risk increases for more customers. Such factors which could impact the IFRS 9 models, include an adverse deterioration in unemployment and GDP in the economies in which NatWest Group operates.

 


 

Movement in ECL provision

The table below shows the main ECL provision movements during H1 2024.

 


ECL provision


£m

At 1 January 2024

3,645

Transfers to disposal groups and reclassifications

(18)

Changes in economic forecasts

(17)

Changes in risk metrics and exposure: Stage 1 and Stage 2

(147)

Changes in risk metrics and exposure: Stage 3

370

Judgemental changes: changes in post model adjustments for Stage 1,

 

   Stage 2 and Stage 3

(140)

Write-offs and other

(350)

At 30 June 2024

3,343

 

-    During the first half of the year, overall ECL decreased with increases from Stage 3 inflows more than offset by write-offs, including debt sale activity on Personal unsecured assets (£0.2 billion), reductions in economic uncertainty post-model adjustments, as well as reflecting balance reductions and positive portfolio performance across NatWest Group.

-    In the Personal portfolios, Stage 3 default rates reduced during H1 2024 relative to H2 2023 with trends on PDs and Stage 2 either stable or improving.

-    For the Wholesale portfolio, Stage 3 defaults increased but are still below historic trends.

-    Judgemental ECL post model adjustments, decreased from 31 December 2023 and now representing 10% of total ECL (31 December 2023 - 13%). Refer to the Governance and post model adjustments section for further details.

 




Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities

Introduction

This section details the credit risk profile of NatWest Group's banking activities.

Financial instruments within the scope of the IFRS 9 ECL framework (reviewed)

Refer to Note 8 to the consolidated financial statements for balance sheet analysis of financial assets that are classified as amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI), the starting point for IFRS 9 ECL framework assessment.


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


Gross

ECL

Net

 

Gross

ECL

Net


£bn

£bn

£bn

 

£bn

£bn

£bn

Balance sheet total gross amortised cost and FVOCI

562.6



 

553.8



In scope of IFRS 9 ECL framework

555.1



 

545.3



% in scope

99%



 

98%



Loans to customers - in scope - amortised cost

383.1

3.2

379.9

 

385.3

3.6

381.7

Loans to customers - in scope - FVOCI

0.1

-

0.1

 

0.1

-

0.1

Loans to banks - in scope - amortised cost

5.7

-

5.7

 

6.7

-

6.7

Total loans - in scope

388.9

3.2

385.7

 

392.1

3.6

388.5

  Stage 1

345.8

0.5

345.3

 

348.6

0.7

347.9

  Stage 2

37.3

0.8

36.5

 

37.9

0.9

37.0

  Stage 3

5.8

1.9

3.9

 

5.6

2.0

3.6

Other financial assets - in scope - amortised cost

138.5

-

138.5

 

124.9

-

124.9

Other financial assets - in scope - FVOCI

27.7

-

27.7

 

28.3

-

28.3

Total other financial assets - in scope

166.2

-

166.2

 

153.2

-

153.2

  Stage 1

165.6

-

165.6

 

152.0

-

152.0

  Stage 2

0.6

-

0.6

 

1.2

-

1.2

Out of scope of IFRS 9 ECL framework

7.5

na

7.5

 

8.5

na

8.5

Loans to customers - out of scope - amortised cost

(0.6)

na

(0.6)


(0.4)

na

(0.4)

Loans to banks - out of scope - amortised cost

0.3

na

0.3


0.3

na

0.3

Other financial assets - out of scope - amortised cost

7.5

na

7.5


8.3

na

8.3

Other financial assets - out of scope - FVOCI

0.3

na

0.3


0.3

na

0.3

na = not applicable


 

The assets outside the scope of the IFRS 9 ECL framework were as follows:

 

-    Settlement balances, items in the course of collection, cash balances and other non-credit risk assets of £7.4 billion (31 December 2023 - £8.6 billion). These were assessed as having no ECL unless there was evidence that they were defaulted.

-    Equity shares of £0.3 billion (31 December 2023 - £0.3 billion) as not within the IFRS 9 ECL framework by definition. 

-    Fair value adjustments on loans hedged by interest rate swaps, where the underlying loan was within the IFRS 9 ECL scope of £(0.4) billion (31 December 2023 - £(0.3) billion).

Contingent liabilities and commitments

In addition to contingent liabilities and commitments disclosed in Note 13 to the consolidated financial statements, reputationally-committed limits were also included in the scope of the IFRS 9 ECL framework. These were offset by £0.4 billion (31 December 2023 - £0.1 billion) out of scope balances primarily related to facilities that, if drawn, would not be classified as amortised cost or FVOCI, or undrawn limits relating to financial assets exclusions. Total contingent liabilities (including financial guarantees) and commitments within IFRS 9 ECL scope of £136.2 billion (31 December 2023 - £132.0 billion) comprised Stage 1 £126.3 billion (31 December 2023 - £120.6 billion); Stage 2 £9.2 billion (31 December 2023 - £10.7 billion); and Stage 3 £0.7 billion (31 December 2023 - £0.7 billion).

The ECL relating to off-balance sheet exposures was £0.1 billion (31 December 2023 - £0.1 billion). The total ECL in the remainder of the Credit risk section of £3.3 billion (31 December 2023 - £3.6 billion) included ECL for both on and off-balance sheet exposures for non-disposal groups.




 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Segment analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)

The table below shows gross loans and ECL, by segment and stage, within the scope of the IFRS 9 ECL framework.


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items

 


Banking

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Loans - amortised cost and FVOCI (1,2)

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 1

178,508

17,209

123,433

26,697

345,847

Stage 2

23,091

744

13,453

-

37,288

Stage 3

3,205

294

2,313

-

5,812

Of which: individual

-

252

964

-

1,216

Of which: collective

3,205

42

1,349

-

4,596

Subtotal excluding disposal group loans

204,804

18,247

139,199

26,697

388,947

Disposal group loans

 

 

 

-

-

Total 

 

 

 

26,697

388,947

ECL provisions (3)

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 1

275

16

275

19

585

Stage 2 

456

11

334

1

802

Stage 3

1,026

38

892

-

1,956

Of which: individual

-

38

328

-

366

Of which: collective

1,026

-

564

-

1,590

Subtotal excluding ECL provisions on disposal group loans

1,757

65

1,501

20

3,343

ECL provisions on disposal group loans

 

 

 

-

-

Total 

 

 

 

20

3,343

ECL provisions coverage (4)

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 1 (%)

0.15

0.09

0.22

0.07

0.17

Stage 2 (%)

1.97

1.48

2.48

nm

2.15

Stage 3 (%)

32.01

12.93

38.56

-

33.65

ECL provisions coverage excluding disposal group loans

0.86

0.36

1.08

0.07

0.86

ECL provisions coverage on disposal group loans

-

-

-

-

-

Total 

-

-

-

0.07

0.86

Impairment (releases)/losses

 

 

 

 

 

ECL charge/(release) (5)

122

(11)

(57)

(6)

48

Stage 1

(166)

(9)

(182)

(7)

(364)

Stage 2

178

(3)

14

1

190

Stage 3

110

1

111

-

222

Of which: individual

-

1

79

-

80

Of which: collective

110

-

32

-

142

Continuing operations

122

(11)

(57)

(6)

48

Discontinued operations

 

 

 

-

-

Total

 

 

 

(6)

48

Amounts written-off 

270

-

99

-

369

Of which: individual

-

-

64

-

64

Of which: collective

270

-

35

-

305

For the notes to this table refer to the following page.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Segment analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items



Banking

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

31 December 2023

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Loans - amortised cost and FVOCI (1,2)






Stage 1

182,297

17,565

119,047

29,677

348,586

Stage 2

21,208

906

15,771

6

37,891

Stage 3

3,133

258

2,162

10

5,563

Of which: individual

-

186

845

-

1,031

Of which: collective

3,133

72

1,317

10

4,532

Subtotal excluding disposal group loans

206,638

18,729

136,980

29,693

392,040

Disposal group loans




67

67

Total 




29,760

392,107

ECL provisions (3)






Stage 1

306

20

356

27

709

Stage 2 

502

20

447

7

976

Stage 3

1,097

34

819

10

1,960

Of which: individual

-

34

298

-

332

Of which: collective

1,097

-

521

10

1,628

Subtotal excluding ECL provisions on disposal group loans

1,905

74

1,622

44

3,645

ECL provisions on disposal group loans




36

36

Total 




80

3,681

ECL provisions coverage (4)






Stage 1 (%)

0.17

0.11

0.30

0.09

0.20

Stage 2 (%)

2.37

2.21

2.83

nm

2.58

Stage 3 (%)

35.01

13.18

37.88

100.00

35.23

ECL provisions coverage excluding disposal group loans

0.92

0.40

1.18

0.15

0.93

ECL provisions coverage on disposal group loans




53.73

53.73

Total 




0.27

0.94

Half year ended 30 June 2023






Impairment (releases)/losses






ECL (release)/charge (5)

193

11

20

(1)

223

Stage 1

(88)

(1)

(124)

4

(209)

Stage 2

188

8

98

2

296

Stage 3

93

4

46

(7)

136

Of which: individual

-

4

13

(4)

13

Of which: collective

93

-

33

(3)

123

Continuing operations

193

11

20

(1)

223

Discontinued operations




(1)

(1)

Total




(2)

222

Amounts written-off

63

1

50

8

122

Of which: individual

-

1

19

2

22

Of which: collective

63

-

31

6

100


 

nm = not meaningful

(1)       The table shows gross loans only and excludes amounts that were outside the scope of the ECL framework. Other financial assets within the scope of the IFRS 9 ECL framework were cash and balances at central banks totalling £114.8 billion (31 December 2023 - £103.1 billion) and debt securities of £51.4 billion (31 December 2023 - £50.1 billion).

(2)       Fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI). Includes loans to customers and banks.

(3)       Includes £4 million (31 December 2023 - £9 million) related to assets classified as FVOCI and £0.1 billion (31 December 2023 - £0.1 billion) related to off-balance sheet exposures.

(4)       ECL provisions coverage is calculated as ECL provisions divided by loans - amortised cost and FVOCI. It is calculated on loans and total ECL provisions, including ECL for other (non-loan) assets and unutilised exposure. Some segments with a high proportion of debt securities or unutilised exposure may result in a not meaningful (nm) coverage ratio.

(5)       Includes a £6 million release (30 June 2023 - £5 million release) related to other financial assets, of which £5 million release (30 June 2023 - £1 million charge) related to assets classified as FVOCI and includes a £4 million charge (30 June 2023 - £3 million release) related to contingent liabilities.


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Segment loans and impairment metrics (reviewed)

The table below shows gross loans and ECL provisions, by days past due, by segment and stage, within the scope of the ECL framework.



Gross loans

 

ECL provisions (2)


 

Stage 2 (1)

 

 

 

 

Stage 2 (1)

 

 


 

Not past

1-30

>30

 

 

 

 

 

Not past

1-30

>30

 

 

 


Stage 1

due

DPD

DPD

Total

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

due

DPD

DPD

Total

Stage 3

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Retail Banking

178,508

21,836

816

439

23,091

3,205

204,804

 

275

398

15

43

456

1,026

1,757

Private Banking

17,209

653

45

46

744

294

18,247

 

16

11

-

-

11

38

65

Personal

13,865

160

45

30

235

210

14,310

 

3

1

-

-

1

23

27

Wholesale

3,344

493

-

16

509

84

3,937

 

13

10

-

-

10

15

38

Commercial & Institutional

123,433

12,475

649

329

13,453

2,313

139,199

 

275

302

21

11

334

892

1,501

Personal 

2,238

12

24

10

46

46

2,330

 

2

-

-

-

-

14

16

Wholesale

121,195

12,463

625

319

13,407

2,267

136,869

 

273

302

21

11

334

878

1,485

Central items & other

26,697

-

-

-

-

-

26,697

 

19

1

-

-

1

-

20

Personal 

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Wholesale

26,697

-

-

-

-

-

26,697

 

19

1

-

-

1

-

20

Total loans

345,847

34,964

1,510

814

37,288

5,812

388,947

 

585

712

36

54

802

1,956

3,343

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Personal

194,611

22,008

885

479

23,372

3,461

221,444

 

280

399

15

43

457

1,063

1,800

   Wholesale

151,236

12,956

625

335

13,916

2,351

167,503

 

305

313

21

11

345

893

1,543

















31 December 2023
















Retail Banking

182,297

20,128

738

342

21,208

3,133

206,638


306

453

15

34

502

1,097

1,905

Private Banking

17,565

772

77

57

906

258

18,729


20

18

1

1

20

34

74

Personal

14,296

158

73

24

255

209

14,760

 

3

2

-

-

2

20

25

Wholesale

3,269

614

4

33

651

49

3,969

 

17

16

1

1

18

14

49

Commercial & Institutional

119,047

14,689

657

425

15,771

2,162

136,980


356

415

21

11

447

819

1,622

Personal 

2,268

15

21

7

43

52

2,363

 

2

-

-

-

-

16

18

Wholesale

116,779

14,674

636

418

15,728

2,110

134,617

 

354

415

21

11

447

803

1,604

Central items & other

29,677

5

-

1

6

10

29,693


27

6

-

1

7

10

44

Personal 

4

2

-

1

3

6

13

 

5

1

-

1

2

9

16

Wholesale

29,673

3

-

-

3

4

29,680

 

22

5

-

-

5

1

28

Total loans

348,586

35,594

1,472

825

37,891

5,563

392,040


709

892

37

47

976

1,960

3,645

Of which:
















   Personal

198,865

20,303

832

374

21,509

3,400

223,774

 

316

456

15

35

506

1,142

1,964

   Wholesale

149,721

15,291

640

451

16,382

2,163

168,266

 

393

436

22

12

470

818

1,681

For the notes to this table refer to the following page.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Segment loans and impairment metrics (reviewed)

The table below shows ECL and ECL provisions coverage, by days past due, by segment and stage, within the scope of the ECL framework.


ECL provisions coverage

Half year ended 30 June 2024


 

Stage 2 (1,2)

 

 

ECL


 

Not past

 

 

 

 

 

Total

Amounts


Stage 1

due

1-30 DPD

>30 DPD

Total

Stage 3

Total

(release)/charge

written-off

30 June 2024

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

£m

£m

Retail Banking

0.15

1.82

1.84

9.79

1.97

32.01

0.86

122

270

Private Banking

0.09

1.68

-

-

1.48

12.93

0.36

(11)

-

Personal

0.02

0.63

-

-

0.43

10.95

0.19

1

-

Wholesale

0.39

2.03

-

-

1.96

17.86

0.97

(12)

-

Commercial &

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Institutional

0.22

2.42

3.24

3.34

2.48

38.56

1.08

(57)

99

Personal 

0.09

-

-

-

-

30.43

0.69

-

1

Wholesale

0.23

2.42

3.36

3.45

2.49

38.73

1.08

(57)

98

Central items

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 & other

0.07

nm

-

-

nm

-

0.07

(6)

-

Personal 

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Wholesale

0.07

nm

-

-

nm

-

0.07

(6)

-

Total loans

0.17

2.04

2.38

6.63

2.15

33.65

0.86

48

369

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Personal

0.14

1.81

1.69

8.98

1.96

30.71

0.81

123

271

   Wholesale

0.20

2.42

3.36

3.28

2.48

37.98

0.92

(75)

98











31 December 2023








Half year ended 30 June 2023

Retail Banking

0.17

2.25

2.03

9.94

2.37

35.01

0.92

193

63

Private Banking

0.11

2.33

1.30

1.75

2.21

13.18

0.40

11

1

Personal

0.02

1.27

-

-

0.78

9.57

0.17

4

1

Wholesale

0.52

2.61

25.00

3.03

2.76

28.57

1.23

7

-

Commercial &

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Institutional

0.30

2.83

3.20

2.59

2.83

37.88

1.18

20

50

Personal

0.09

-

-

-

-

30.77

0.76

1

1

Wholesale

0.30

2.83

3.30

2.63

2.84

38.06

1.19

19

49

Central items

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 & other

0.09

nm

-

nm

nm

nm

0.15

(1)

8

Personal

nm

nm

-

nm

nm

nm

nm

5

1

Wholesale

0.07

nm

-

-

nm

25.00

0.09

(6)

7

Total loans

0.20

2.51

2.51

5.70

2.58

35.23

0.93

223

122

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Personal

0.16

2.25

1.80

9.36

2.35

33.59

0.88

203

66

   Wholesale

0.26

2.85

3.44

2.66

2.87

37.82

1.00

20

56


-    Retail Banking - Loans to customers were lower than Q4 2023, mainly due to a reduction in mortgage balances where higher redemptions were only partly offset by new mortgage lending. Unsecured lending grew overall, driven by growth in credit cards. New lending and portfolio credit quality was maintained with limited increases in arrears in line with expectations. Total ECL coverage decreased during H1 2024 reflective of Q2 2024 debt sale activity on unsecured portfolios (£0.2 billion of assets), reductions in economic uncertainty post model adjustments, and stable underlying portfolio performance. The reduction in good book coverage in the first half of the year was also a result of unsecured probability of default modelling updates alongside an improved view on forward looking economics, underpinning a reduction in Stage 2 balances. Post model adjustments to capture increased affordability pressures on customers due to high inflation and interest rates decreased since Q4 2023, reflecting a revision of portfolio subsegments deemed most at risk, supported by back-testing of default outcomes. Flow rates into Stage 3 reduced during H1 2024.

-    Commercial & Institutional - Growth in exposure in Commercial & Institutional was driven by increased exposure to financial institutions and property, and partially offset by an overall reduction to corporate sectors. Sector appetite continues to be reviewed regularly, with particular focus on sector clusters deemed to represent a heightened risk. Total ECL reduced in H1 2024 due to releases in post model adjustments, positive portfolio performance and improved economic scenarios. This was partially offset by an increase in Stage 3 ECL, from flows into default on individually assessed customers. The ECL decrease resulted in a reduction in coverage levels, but coverage on Stage 1 and Stage 2 was still significantly above pre-COVID-19 levels, reflecting that a degree of economic uncertainty remains.

 

nm = not meaningful

 

(1)     30 DPD - 30 days past due, the mandatory 30 days past due backstop as prescribed by IFRS 9 for a SICR.

(2)     Some segments with a high proportion of debt securities or unutilised exposure may result in a not meaningful (nm) coverage ratio.


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Sector analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)

The table below shows financial assets and off-balance sheet exposures gross of ECL and related ECL provisions, impairment and past due by sector, asset quality and geographical region.


Personal

 

Wholesale


Total


 

Credit

Other

 

 

 

 

Financial

 

 


 


Mortgages (1)

cards

personal

Total

 

Property

Corporate

institution

Sovereign

Total


 

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

Loans by geography

205,486

6,381

9,577

221,444

 

32,618

76,588

56,725

1,572

167,503

 

388,947

  - UK

205,486

6,381

9,577

221,444

 

32,200

63,611

38,600

552

134,963

 

356,407

  - RoI

-

-

-

-

 

10

983

529

-

1,522

 

1,522

  - Other Europe

-

-

-

-

 

289

5,100

8,669

701

14,759

 

14,759

  - RoW

-

-

-

-

 

119

6,894

8,927

319

16,259

 

16,259

Loans by stage 

205,486

6,381

9,577

221,444

 

32,618

76,588

56,725

1,572

167,503

 

388,947

  - Stage 1

182,672

4,431

7,508

194,611

 

28,872

64,974

56,103

1,287

151,236

 

345,847

  - Stage 2

20,368

1,792

1,212

23,372

 

3,018

10,087

548

263

13,916

 

37,288

  - Stage 3

2,446

158

857

3,461

 

728

1,527

74

22

2,351

 

5,812

  - Of which: individual

150

-

22

172

 

290

666

66

22

1,044

 

1,216

  - Of which: collective

2,296

158

835

3,289

 

438

861

8

-

1,307

 

4,596

Loans - past due analysis (2)

205,486

6,381

9,577

221,444

 

32,618

76,588

56,725

1,572

167,503

 

388,947

  - Not past due

202,398

6,198

8,677

217,273

 

31,937

74,187

56,442

1,550

164,116

 

381,389

  - Past due 1-30 days

1,199

44

68

1,311

 

296

1,494

275

-

2,065

 

3,376

  - Past due 31-90 days

735

44

119

898

 

86

287

3

-

376

 

1,274

  - Past due 90-180 days

388

38

101

527

 

37

33

-

22

92

 

619

  - Past due >180 days

766

57

612

1,435

 

262

587

5

-

854

 

2,289

Loans - Stage 2

20,368

1,792

1,212

23,372

 

3,018

10,087

548

263

13,916

 

37,288

  - Not past due

19,171

1,737

1,100

22,008

 

2,820

9,331

542

263

12,956

 

34,964

  - Past due 1-30 days

822

27

36

885

 

116

506

3

-

625

 

1,510

  - Past due 31-90 days

375

28

76

479

 

82

250

3

-

335

 

814

Weighted average life 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   - ECL measurement (years)

9

4

6

5

 

6

6

2

2

6

 

6

Weighted average 12 months PDs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  - IFRS 9 (%)

0.51

2.99

4.63

0.74

 

1.14

1.36

0.17

4.38

0.94

 

0.83

  - Basel (%)

0.67

3.51

3.32

0.85

 

0.90

1.22

0.16

4.38

0.82

 

0.84

ECL provisions by geography

420

376

1,004

1,800

 

371

1,063

90

19

1,543

 

3,343

  - UK

420

376

1,004

1,800

 

361

926

34

13

1,334

 

3,134

  - RoI

-

-

-

-

 

-

3

1

-

4

 

4

  - Other Europe

-

-

-

-

 

3

87

8

-

98

 

98

  - RoW

-

-

-

-

 

7

47

47

6

107

 

107

ECL provisions by stage 

420

376

1,004

1,800

 

371

1,063

90

19

1,543

 

3,343

  - Stage 1

49

82

149

280

 

73

180

39

13

305

 

585

  - Stage 2

69

189

199

457

 

66

270

7

2

345

 

802

  - Stage 3

302

105

656

1,063

 

232

613

44

4

893

 

1,956

  - Of which: individual

13

-

14

27

 

85

211

39

4

339

 

366

  - Of which: collective

289

105

642

1,036

 

147

402

5

-

554

 

1,590

For the notes to this table refer to page 34.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Sector analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)


Personal

 

Wholesale


Total


 

Credit

Other

 

 

 

 

Financial

 

 


 


Mortgages (1)

cards

personal

Total

 

Property

Corporate

institution

Sovereign

Total


 

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

ECL provisions coverage (%)

0.20

5.89

10.48

0.81

 

1.14

1.39

0.16

1.21

0.92

 

0.86

  - Stage 1 (%)

0.03

1.85

1.98

0.14

 

0.25

0.28

0.07

1.01

0.20

 

0.17

  - Stage 2 (%)

0.34

10.55

16.42

1.96

 

2.19

2.68

1.28

0.76

2.48

 

2.15

  - Stage 3 (%)

12.35

66.46

76.55

30.71

 

31.87

40.14

59.46

18.18

37.98

 

33.65

ECL (release)/charge

(19)

51

91

123

 

(12)

(83)

19

1

(75)

 

48

  - UK

(19)

51

91

123

 

(12)

(70)

(4)

-

(86)

 

37

  - RoI

-

-

-

-

 

1

-

-

-

1

 

1

  - Other Europe

-

-

-

-

 

(1)

(7)

(6)

-

(14)

 

(14)

  - RoW

-

-

-

-

 

-

(6)

29

1

24

 

24

Amounts written-off 

9

38

224

271

 

10

88

-

-

98

 

369

Loans by residual maturity

205,486

6,381

9,577

221,444

 

32,618

76,588

56,725

1,572

167,503

 

388,947

 - <1 year 

3,366

3,618

3,080

10,064

 

6,665

25,856

43,220

780

76,521

 

86,585

 - 1-5 year

9,469

2,763

5,482

17,714

 

17,687

30,632

11,242

483

60,044

 

77,758

 - >5<15 year

45,488

-

1,009

46,497

 

5,782

14,925

2,229

309

23,245

 

69,742

 - >15 year

147,163

-

6

147,169

 

2,484

5,175

34

-

7,693

 

154,862

Other financial assets by asset quality (3)

-

-

-

-

 

1

2,583

27,058

136,516

166,158

 

166,158

  - AQ1-AQ4

-

-

-

-

 

1

2,581

26,507

136,516

165,605

 

165,605

  - AQ5-AQ8

-

-

-

-

 

-

2

551

-

553

 

553

Off-balance sheet

12,478

18,494

8,207

39,179

 

14,159

61,113

21,516

254

97,042

 

136,221

  - Loan commitments

12,478

18,494

8,165

39,137

 

13,843

58,410

19,909

254

92,416

 

131,553

  - Financial guarantees

-

-

42

42

 

316

2,703

1,607

-

4,626

 

4,668

Off-balance sheet by asset quality (3)

12,478

18,494

8,207

39,179

 

14,159

61,113

21,516

254

97,042

 

136,221

  - AQ1-AQ4

11,659

486

6,869

19,014

 

10,970

37,302

19,902

164

68,338

 

87,352

  - AQ5-AQ8

797

17,681

1,301

19,779

 

3,170

23,497

1,575

27

28,269

 

48,048

  - AQ9 

7

9

9

25

 

2

25

1

63

91

 

116

  - AQ10

15

318

28

361

 

17

289

38

-

344

 

705

For the notes to this table refer to page 34.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Sector analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)


Personal


Wholesale


Total



Credit

Other





Financial






Mortgages (1)

cards

personal

Total


Property

Corporate

institution

Sovereign

Total



31 December 2023

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

Loans by geography

208,275

5,904

9,595

223,774


31,207

77,339

57,087

2,633

168,266


392,040

  - UK

208,275

5,893

9,592

223,760

 

30,703

65,033

39,906

2,016

137,658

 

361,418

  - RoI

-

11

3

14

 

9

888

279

-

1,176

 

1,190

  - Other Europe

-

-

-

-

 

375

5,096

7,865

399

13,735

 

13,735

  - RoW

-

-

-

-

 

120

6,322

9,037

218

15,697

 

15,697

Loans by stage

208,275

5,904

9,595

223,774


31,207

77,339

57,087

2,633

168,266


392,040

  - Stage 1

188,140

3,742

6,983

198,865

 

27,316

63,690

56,105

2,610

149,721

 

348,586

  - Stage 2

17,854

2,022

1,633

21,509

 

3,270

12,145

966

1

16,382

 

37,891

  - Stage 3

2,281

140

979

3,400

 

621

1,504

16

22

2,163

 

5,563

  - Of which: individual

122

-

20

142

 

240

625

2

22

889

 

1,031

  - Of which: collective

2,159

140

959

3,258

 

381

879

14

-

1,274

 

4,532

Loans - past due analysis (2)

208,275

5,904

9,595

223,774


31,207

77,339

57,087

2,633

168,266


392,040

  - Not past due

205,405

5,743

8,578

219,726

 

30,264

74,052

56,735

2,633

163,684

 

383,410

  - Past due 1-30 days

1,178

41

71

1,290

 

491

2,222

332

-

3,045

 

4,335

  - Past due 31-90 days

518

38

112

668

 

179

437

12

-

628

 

1,296

  - Past due 90-180 days

445

32

103

580

 

42

71

2

-

115

 

695

  - Past due >180 days

729

50

731

1,510

 

231

557

6

-

794

 

2,304

Loans - Stage 2

17,854

2,022

1,633

21,509


3,270

12,145

966

1

16,382


37,891

  - Not past due

16,803

1,971

1,529

20,303

 

3,071

11,287

932

1

15,291

 

35,594

  - Past due 1-30 days

765

27

40

832

 

100

516

24

-

640

 

1,472

  - Past due 31-90 days

286

24

64

374

 

99

342

10

-

451

 

825

Weighted average life













   - ECL measurement (years)

9

3

6

6

 

6

6

2

-

6

 

6

Weighted average 12 months PDs












  - IFRS 9 (%)

0.50

3.45

5.29

0.75

 

1.45

1.59

0.19

0.37

1.07

 

0.89

  - Basel (%)

0.67

3.37

3.15

0.84

 

0.94

1.25

0.17

0.37

0.81

 

0.83

ECL provisions by geography

420

376

1,168

1,964


398

1,201

66

16

1,681


3,645

  - UK

420

365

1,163

1,948

 

384

999

38

13

1,434

 

3,382

  - RoI

-

11

5

16

 

-

6

1

-

7

 

23

  - Other Europe

-

-

-

-

 

7

146

12

-

165

 

165

  - RoW

-

-

-

-

 

7

50

15

3

75

 

75

ECL provisions by stage 

420

376

1,168

1,964


398

1,201

66

16

1,681


3,645

  - Stage 1

88

76

152

316

 

102

234

44

13

393

 

709

  - Stage 2

61

207

238

506

 

98

356

15

1

470

 

976

  - Stage 3

271

93

778

1,142

 

198

611

7

2

818

 

1,960

  - Of which: individual

12

-

14

26

 

60

242

2

2

306

 

332

  - Of which: collective

259

93

764

1,116

 

138

369

5

-

512

 

1,628

For the notes to this table refer to the following page.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Sector analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)


Personal


Wholesale


Total



Credit

Other





Financial






Mortgages (1)

cards

personal

Total


Property

Corporate

institution

Sovereign

Total



31 December 2023

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

ECL provisions coverage (%)

0.20

6.37

12.17

0.88


1.28

1.55

0.12

0.61

1.00


0.93

  - Stage 1 (%)

0.05

2.03

2.18

0.16

 

0.37

0.37

0.08

0.50

0.26

 

0.20

  - Stage 2 (%)

0.34

10.24

14.57

2.35

 

3.00

2.93

1.55

100.00

2.87

 

2.58

  - Stage 3 (%)

11.88

66.43

79.47

33.59

 

31.88

40.63

43.75

9.09

37.82

 

35.23














Half year ended 30 June 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECL (release)/charge (4)

23

70

110

203


21

7

(6)

(2)

20


223

  - UK

23

68

107

198

 

21

37

(11)

(2)

45

 

243

  - RoI

-

2

3

5

 

5

(5)

-

-

-

 

5

  - Other Europe

-

-

-

-

 

(5)

16

1

-

12

 

12

  - RoW

-

-

-

-

 

-

(41)

4

-

(37)

 

(37)

Amounts written-off (4)

8

34

24

66


19

37

-

-

56


122














31 December 2023













Loans by residual maturity

208,275

5,904

9,595

223,774


31,207

77,339

57,087

2,633

168,266


392,040

 - <1 year 

3,375

3,398

3,169

9,942

 

5,696

25,312

43,497

489

74,994

 

84,936

 - 1-5 year

9,508

2,506

5,431

17,445

 

17,216

32,573

11616

1,872

63,277

 

80,722

 - >5<15 year

46,453

-

993

47,446

 

5,701

14,167

1,939

199

22,006

 

69,452

 - >15 year

148,939

-

2

148,941

 

2,594

5,287

35

73

7,989

 

156,930

Other financial assets by asset quality (3)

-

-

-

-


1

2,689

26,816

123,683

153,189


153,189

  - AQ1-AQ4

-

-

-

-

 

1.0

2,689

26,084

123,683

152,457

 

152,457

  - AQ5-AQ8

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

732

-

732

 

732

Off-balance sheet

9,843

17,284

8,462

35,589


14,205

59,716

22,221

227

96,369


131,958

  - Loan commitments

9,843

17,284

8,417

35,544

 

13,861

57,081

20,765

227

91,934

 

127,478

  - Financial guarantees

-

-

45

45

 

344

2,635

1,456

-

4,435

 

4,480

Off-balance sheet by asset quality (3)

9,843

17,284

8,462

35,589


14,205

59,716

22,221

227

96,369


131,958

  - AQ1-AQ4

9,099

448

7,271

16,818

 

10,916

36,380

20,644

165

68,105

 

84,923

  - AQ5-AQ8

721

16,518

1,162

18,401

 

3,266

23,030

1,574

45

27,915

 

46,316

  - AQ9 

7

6

4

17

 

3

12

-

-

15

 

32

  - AQ10

16

312

25

353

 

20

294

3

17

334

 

687

(1)       Includes a portion of Private Banking lending secured against residential real estate, in line with ECL calculation methodology. Private Banking and RBS International mortgages are reported in the UK, reflecting the country of lending origination and includes crown dependencies.

(2)       30 DPD - 30 days past due, the mandatory 30 days past due backstop as prescribed by the IFRS 9 guidance for a SICR (significant increase in credit risk).

(3)       AQ bandings are based on Basel PDs and mapping is as follows:

Internal asset quality band

Probability of default range

Indicative S&P rating


Internal asset quality band

Probability of default range

Indicative S&P rating

AQ1

0% - 0.034%

AAA to AA


AQ6

1.076% - 2.153%

BB- to B+

AQ2

0.034% - 0.048%

AA to AA-


AQ7

2.153% - 6.089%

B+ to B

AQ3

0.048% - 0.095%

A+ to A


AQ8

6.089% - 17.222%

B- to CCC+

AQ4

0.095% - 0.381%

BBB+ to BBB-


AQ9

17.222% - 100%

CCC to C

AQ5

0.381% - 1.076%

BB+ to BB


AQ10

100%

D

£0.3 billion (31 December 2023 - £0.3 billion) of AQ10 Personal balances primarily relate to loan commitments, the drawdown of which is effectively prohibited.

(4)       Previously published sectors for the Wholesale portfolio have been re-presented to reflect updated internal sector reporting.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Sector analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)

The table below shows ECL by stage, for the Personal portfolio and selected sectors of the Wholesale portfolio including those that contain an element of exposure classified as heightened climate-related risk.


Loans - amortised cost and FVOCI

 

Off-balance sheet 

 

ECL provisions


 

 

Loan

Contingent

 

 


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

commitments

liabilities

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Personal

194,611

23,372

3,461

221,444

 

39,137

42

 

280

457

1,063

1,800

Mortgages (1)

182,672

20,368

2,446

205,486

 

12,478

-

 

49

69

302

420

Credit cards

4,431

1,792

158

6,381

 

18,494

-

 

82

189

105

376

Other personal

7,508

1,212

857

9,577

 

8,165

42

 

149

199

656

1,004

Wholesale

151,236

13,916

2,351

167,503

 

92,416

4,626

 

305

345

893

1,543

Property

28,872

3,018

728

32,618

 

13,843

316

 

73

66

232

371

Financial institutions (2)

56,103

548

74

56,725

 

19,909

1,607

 

39

7

44

90

Sovereigns

1,287

263

22

1,572

 

254

-

 

13

2

4

19

Corporate

64,974

10,087

1,527

76,588

 

58,410

2,703

 

180

270

613

1,063

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      Agriculture

3,933

873

122

4,928

 

947

21

 

13

29

37

79

Airlines and aerospace

2,103

286

4

2,393

 

2,087

232

 

3

3

3

9

Automotive

7,041

653

55

7,749

 

4,090

136

 

14

12

18

44

Building materials

1,447

257

18

1,722

 

1,441

64

 

4

7

7

18

Chemicals

362

76

1

439

 

722

14

 

1

1

1

3

Industrials

2,066

405

74

2,545

 

2,725

140

 

7

12

29

48

Land transport and logistics

4,485

300

85

4,870

 

3,033

253

 

8

11

22

41

Leisure

4,576

1,866

284

6,726

 

2,140

116

 

24

60

98

182

Mining and metals 

296

23

4

323

 

315

6

 

-

-

4

4

Oil and gas

626

26

70

722

 

1,932

189

 

2

1

49

52

Power utilities

5,811

301

79

6,191

 

7,757

585

 

12

7

32

51

Retail

6,083

1,119

164

7,366

 

4,522

385

 

14

25

72

111

Shipping

205

10

25

240

 

76

27

 

-

1

9

10

Water and waste

3,513

362

20

3,895

 

1,813

121

 

3

3

6

12

Total

345,847

37,288

5,812

388,947

 

131,553

4,668

 

585

802

1,956

3,343

For the notes to this table refer to the following page.

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Sector analysis - portfolio summary (reviewed)


Loans - amortised cost and FVOCI


Off-balance sheet 


ECL provisions




Loan

Contingent




Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total


commitments

liabilities


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

31 December 2023 

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

£m

Personal

198,865

21,509

3,400

223,774


35,544

45


316

506

1,142

1,964

Mortgages (1)

188,140

17,854

2,281

208,275


9,843

-


88

61

271

420

Credit cards

3,742

2,022

140

5,904


17,284

-


76

207

93

376

Other personal

6,983

1,633

979

9,595


8,417

45


152

238

778

1,168

Wholesale

149,721

16,382

2,163

168,266


91,934

4,435


393

470

818

1,681

Property

27,316

3,270

621

31,207


13,861

344


102

98

198

398

Financial institutions (2)

56,105

966

16

57,087


20,765

1,456


44

15

7

66

Sovereigns

2,610

1

22

2,633


227

-


13

1

2

16

Corporate

63,690

12,145

1,504

77,339


57,081

2,635


234

356

611

1,201

Of which:













   Agriculture

3,851

1,011

90

4,952

 

950

21

 

19

35

34

88

Airlines and aerospace

1,525

454

3

1,982

 

1,788

178

 

4

7

2

13

Automotive

7,223

1,008

76

8,307

 

3,844

103

 

18

18

26

62

Building materials

1,204

282

72

1,558

 

1,475

72

 

6

9

8

23

Chemicals

354

62

4

420

 

785

13

 

1

9

1

11

Industrials

2,269

543

70

2,882

 

2,896

148

 

10

18

23

51

Land transport and logistics

4,231

578

61

4,870

 

3,025

184

 

11

14

18

43

Leisure

4,394

2,245

288

6,927

 

1,887

145

 

31

74

91

196

Mining and metals 

241

32

4

277

 

545

7

 

-

-

4

4

Oil and gas

915

125

27

1,067

 

1,959

237

 

3

2

29

34

Power utilities

5,604

418

40

6,062

 

8,257

554

 

13

13

24

50

Retail

5,846

1,318

224

7,388

 

4,717

429

 

23

35

118

176

Shipping

207

35

3

245

 

71

31

 

-

1

2

3

Water and waste

3,536

173

13

3,722

 

1,904

84

 

4

5

4

13

Total

348,586

37,891

5,563

392,040


127,478

4,480


709

976

1,960

3,645

(1)     As at 30 June 2024, £136.5 billion, 66.4%, of the total residential mortgages portfolio had Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data available (31 December 2023 - £140.8 billion, 67.6%). Of which, 45.2% were rated as EPC A to C (31 December 2023 - 44.1%).

(2)     Includes transactions, such as securitisations, where the underlying risk may be in other sectors.

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Wholesale forbearance (reviewed)

The table below shows Wholesale forbearance, Heightened Monitoring and Risk of Credit Loss by sector. This table shows current exposure but reflects risk transfers where there is a guarantee by another customer.

 


 

Financial 

 

Other 

 


Property

institution

Sovereign

corporate

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Forbearance (flow)

495

101

-

1,876

2,472

Forbearance (stock)

1,081

122

20

3,751

4,974

Heightened Monitoring and Risk of Credit Loss

1,231

183

-

4,299

5,713


 

 

 

 

 

31 December 2023






Forbearance (flow)

916

56

22

2,568

3,562

Forbearance (stock)

1,071

70

22

3,752

4,915

Heightened Monitoring and Risk of Credit Loss

1,089

276

-

4,119

5,484

 

 


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

-      Loans by geography and sector - In line with NatWest Group's strategic focus, exposures continued to be mainly in the UK.

-      Loans by stage - The reduction in Stage 1 mirrored the reduction in balances since Q4 2023, primarily driven by personal mortgages. The reduction in Stage 2 was reflective of portfolio performance and PD modelling updates in Personal unsecured portfolios. The modest increase in Stage 3 balance was mitigated by debt sale activity on Personal unsecured assets.

-      Loans - Past due analysis - In Personal, there were limited increases in the value of arrears during H1 2024. The increases were in line with expectations, mainly in mortgages given the higher interest rate environment, following portfolio growth in recent years and adjustments to lending criteria following COVID-19. The reduction in arrears in unsecured portfolios was due to Q2 2024 debt sale activity. In Wholesale, past due profile was stable.

-      Weighted average 12 months PDs - Both IFRS 9 and Basel PDs remained broadly stable in the first half of the year overall. In Personal portfolios, there was a notable reduction in unsecured portfolios due to PD modelling updates. In Wholesale, some reductions were observed in PDs in the corporate and property portfolios due to economic and portfolio improvements. PDs in sovereigns increased significantly due to lending backed by government guarantees.

-      ECL provisions by stage and ECL provisions coverage - Overall provisions coverage reduced since 31 December 2023. On the performing book, this was mainly a result of positive portfolio performance, reduced economic uncertainty post model adjustments and PD reductions across a number of portfolios. Furthermore, Stage 3 and total book coverage reduced supported by the reduction of balances from debt sale activity on Personal unsecured portfolios.

-      The ECL charge - The year-to-date impairment charge for 2024 of £48 million primarily reflected impairment releases on Wholesale portfolios driven by the reduction in economic uncertainty post model adjustments alongside positive portfolio performance and reduced PD levels.

-      Loans by residual maturity - The maturity profile of the portfolios remained consistent with prior periods. In mortgages, as expected, the vast majority of exposures were greater than five years. In unsecured lending, cards and other, exposures were concentrated in less than five years. In Wholesale, more than 80% of the exposures mature in less than five years.

 

-      Other financial assets by asset quality - Consisting almost entirely of cash and balances at central banks and debt securities held in the course of treasury related management activities, these assets were mainly within the AQ1-AQ4 bands.

-      Off-balance sheet exposures by asset quality - In Personal, undrawn exposures were reflective of available credit lines in credit cards and current accounts. Additionally, the mortgage portfolio had undrawn exposures, where a formal offer had been made to a customer but had not yet drawn down; the value increased in line with the pipeline of offers. There was also a legacy portfolio of flexible mortgages where a customer had the right and ability to draw down further funds. The asset quality was aligned to the wider portfolio. In Wholesale, off-balance sheet exposures increased in sovereigns, and in the asset quality band AQ9. In general, asset quality was stable, and in line with the overall portfolio.

-      Wholesale problem debt - Exposures classified as Heightened Monitoring and Risk of Credit Loss within the Wholesale Problem Debt Management framework (formerly known as the Aligned Risk of Credit Loss and Viability framework) increased in H1 2024, driven by a small volume of customers. NatWest Group continued to closely monitor this portfolio and no sector themes or concerns were observed during H1 2024. Retail SME customers do not form part of this framework, customers in financial difficulty within this group are managed by specialist problem debt management teams. For these customers inflows slowed in H1 2024, collections were stable and recoveries balances continued to be driven by BBLs.

-      Wholesale forbearance - Decreased levels of new forbearance were observed in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023, by both value and volume. The CRE sector cluster was the largest beneficiary by value in H1 2024, closely followed by the consumer industries sector cluster. Payment holidays and covenant waivers were the most common forms of forbearance granted.

 

 

 

 


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Personal portfolio (reviewed)

Disclosures in the Personal portfolio section include drawn exposure (gross of provisions).


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


 

 

 

Central

 

 




Central



Retail

Private

Commercial &

items

 

 

Retail

Private

Commercial &

items



Banking

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

 

Banking

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

Personal lending

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Mortgages

190,510

12,873

2,169

-

205,552


192,915

13,222

2,200

-

208,337

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 







  Owner occupied

172,220

11,370

1,458

-

185,048


174,167

11,629

1,464

-

187,260

  Buy-to-let

18,290

1,503

711

-

20,504


18,748

1,593

736

-

21,077

  Interest only 

22,487

11,276

439

-

34,202


25,805

11,631

461

-

37,897

  Mixed (1)

10,191

33

8

-

10,232


10,068

25

10

-

10,103

  ECL provisions (2)

398

14

8

-

420


397

12

6

-

415

Other personal lending (3)

14,334

1,293

253

-

15,880


13,758

1,395

222

13

15,388

ECL provisions (2)

1,360

14

3

-

1,377


1,508

12

2

16

1,538

Total personal lending

204,844

14,166

2,422

-

221,432


206,673

14,617

2,422

13

223,725

Mortgage LTV ratios

 

 

 

 

 







Owner occupied

57%

59%

55%

-

57%


55%

59%

56%

-

55%

      - Stage 1

57%

59%

55%

-

57%

 

55%

59%

54%

-

55%

      - Stage 2

57%

61%

56%

-

57%

 

54%

63%

54%

-

54%

      - Stage 3

50%

64%

76%

-

51%

 

48%

61%

72%

-

49%

  Buy-to-let

55%

59%

52%

-

55%


52%

59%

52%

-

53%

      - Stage 1

55%

60%

51%

-

55%

 

52%

60%

52%

-

53%

      - Stage 2

53%

59%

53%

-

53%

 

50%

57%

49%

-

50%

      - Stage 3

52%

53%

60%

-

53%

 

50%

53%

58%

-

51%

Gross new mortgage lending 

11,026

675

114

-

11,815


29,664

1,400

180

-

31,244

   Of which:

 

 

 

 

 







 Owner occupied 

10,655

607

86

-

11,348


27,718

1,267

136

-

29,121

  - LTV > 90%

364

-

-

-

364


1,173

-

-

-

1,173

 Weighted average LTV (4)

69%

63%

71%

-

69%


70%

63%

69%

-

70%

 Buy-to-let

371

68

28

-

467


1,946

133

44

-

2,123

 Weighted average LTV (4)

59%

60%

55%

-

59%


58%

65%

52%

-

58%

 Interest only 

633

613

15

-

1,261


2,680

1,224

23

-

3,927

 Mixed (1)

574

-

-

-

574


1,568

2

-

-

1,570

For the notes to this table refer to the following page.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Personal portfolio (reviewed) continued

 


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


 

 

 

Central

 

 




Central



Retail

Private

Commercial &

items

 

 

Retail

Private

Commercial &

items



Banking

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

 

Banking

Banking

Institutional

& other

Total

Mortgage forbearance

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

Forbearance flow (5)

280

21

3

-

304


569

22

9

-

600

Forbearance stock

1,584

34

14

-

1,632


1,416

28

15

-

1,459

  Current

1,066

22

5

-

1,093

 

950

10

6

-

966

  1-3 months in arrears

175

3

-

-

178

 

116

2

2

-

120

  > 3 months in arrears

343

9

9

-

361

 

350

16

7

-

373

 

(1)       Includes accounts which have an interest only sub-account and a capital and interest sub-account to provide a more comprehensive view of interest only exposures.

(2)       Retail Banking excludes a non-material amount of lending and provisions held on relatively small legacy portfolios.

(3)       Comprises unsecured lending except for Private Banking, which includes both secured and unsecured lending. It excludes loans that are commercial in nature.

(4)       New mortgage lending LTV reflects the LTV at the time of lending.

(5)       Forbearance flows only include an account once per year, although some accounts may be subject to multiple forbearance deals. Forbearance deals post default are excluded from these flows.

-    Mortgage balances reduced during H1 2024 where higher redemptions were only partly offset by new mortgage lending. Unsecured lending grew overall, driven by growth in credit cards.

-    Mortgage portfolio LTV increased in H1 2024, as a result of easing of house prices reflected in the Office for National Statistics house price indices.

-    The proportion of overall interest only mortgage balances decreased in H1 2024. Higher levels of interest only at year end 2023 were driven by the implementation of the Mortgage Charter, however, applications for Mortgage Charter support decreased during H1 2024 and customers have rolled-off from interest only periods.

-    Portfolios and new business were closely monitored against agreed operating limits. These included loan-to-value ratios, buy-to-let concentrations, new-build concentrations and credit quality. Lending criteria, affordability calculations and assumptions for new lending were adjusted during the year, to maintain credit quality in line with appetite and to ensure customers are assessed fairly as economic conditions change.

-    The flow of mortgage forbearance was stable in H1 2024 compared to H2 2023. The reported forbearance values included customers who used Mortgage Charter support if indicators of financial stress were already present before Mortgage Charter support was taken.

-    Other personal lending balances increased in H1 2024 with continued growth in credit card new business. Lending criteria were carefully managed and the credit quality (based on new business PD) of the new business written remained stable.

-    As noted previously, ECL provisions decreased. For further details on the movements in ECL provisions at product level, refer to the Flow statements section.

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Personal portfolio (reviewed)

Mortgage LTV distribution by stage

The table below shows gross mortgage lending and related ECL by LTV band for the Retail Banking portfolio.


Mortgages

 

ECL provisions

 

ECL provisions coverage 


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

%

%

%

%

≤50%

60,006

7,459

1,112

68,577

 

12

17

136

165

 

0.0

0.2

12.2

0.2

>50% and ≤70%

60,845

7,727

856

69,428

 

18

26

99

143

 

0.0

0.3

11.6

0.2

>70% and ≤80%

25,290

2,341

173

27,804

 

8

10

21

39

 

0.0

0.4

12.1

0.1

>80% and ≤90%

14,951

1,613

86

16,650

 

6

9

12

27

 

0.0

0.6

14.0

0.2

>90% and ≤100%

6,661

968

29

7,658

 

3

6

5

14

 

0.0

0.6

17.2

0.2

>100%

69

27

14

110

 

-

-

6

6

 

-

-

42.9

5.5

Total with LTVs

167,822

20,135

2,270

190,227

 

47

68

279

394

 

0.0

0.3

12.3

0.2

Other

279

1

3

283

 

1

-

1

2

 

0.4

-

33.3

0.7

Total

168,101

20,136

2,273

190,510

 

48

68

280

396

 

0.0

0.3

12.3

0.2
















31 December 2023














≤50%

68,092

7,447

1,145

76,684


27

18

134

179


0.0

0.2

11.7

0.2

>50% and ≤70%

65,777

7,011

767

73,555


35

26

85

146


0.1

0.4

11.1

0.2

>70% and ≤80%

22,537

1,633

113

24,283


13

7

15

35


0.1

0.4

13.3

0.1

>80% and ≤90%

13,583

1,143

47

14,773


9

6

7

22


0.1

0.5

14.9

0.1

>90% and ≤100%

3,008

370

14

3,392


2

3.0

3

8


0.1

0.8

21.4

0.2

>100%

22

6

11

39


-

-

5

5


-

-

45.5

12.8

Total with LTVs

173,019

17,610

2,097

192,726


86

60

249

395


0.1

0.3

11.9

0.2

Other

186

1

2

189


1

-

1

2


0.5

-

50.0

1.1

Total

173,205

17,611

2,099

192,915


87

60

250

397


0.1

0.3

11.9

0.2

 

Retail Banking fixed rate mortgages by roll-off date

The table below shows gross fixed rate mortgage lending for Retail Banking, by roll-off date.

 

30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023

Retail Banking mortgages - gross exposure

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Fixed rate roll-off

 

 

 

 

 





<=1 year

30,357

3,882

306

34,545

 

30,867

3,670

295

34,832

>1<=2 years

43,204

4,766

359

48,329

 

39,013

3,513

290

42,816

>2 years

81,501

8,640

688

90,829

 

87,402

7,461

590

95,453

Total 

155,062

17,288

1,353

173,703

 

157,282

14,644

1,175

173,101












Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Commercial real estate (CRE) (reviewed)

CRE LTV distribution by stage

The table below shows CRE current exposure and related ECL by LTV band.

 

Gross loans

 

ECL provisions

 

ECL provisions coverage


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

 

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

%

%

%

%

≤50%

7,899

275

45

 

8,219

 

25

7

8

40

 

0.3

2.5

17.8

0.5

>50% and ≤70%

3,692

496

120

 

4,308

 

18

15

24

57

 

0.5

3.0

20.0

1.3

>70% and ≤100%

319

45

87

 

451

 

2

2

26

30

 

0.6

4.4

29.9

6.7

>100%

205

3

65

 

273

 

1

-

38

39

 

0.5

-

58.5

14.3

Total with LTVs

12,115

819

317

 

13,251

 

46

24

96

166

 

0.4

2.9

30.3

1.3

Total portfolio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  average LTV

46%

52%

98%

 

48%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other (1)

2,205

295

39

 

2,539

 

5

6

16

27

 

0.2

2.0

41.0

1.1

Investment

14,320

1,114

356

 

15,790

 

51

30

112

193

 

0.4

2.7

31.5

1.2

Development (2)

1,825

201

50

 

2,076

 

8

2

25

35

 

0.4

1.0

50.0

1.7

Total

16,145

1,315

406

 

17,866

 

59

32

137

228

 

0.4

2.4

33.7

1.3

















31 December 2023
















≤50%

7,173

664

61


7,898


38

15

9

62


0.5

2.3

14.8

0.8

>50% and ≤70%

3,165

619

94


3,878


22

21

18

61


0.7

3.4

19.1

1.6

>70% and ≤100%

319

112

84


515


3

6

21

30


0.9

5.4

25.0

5.8

>100%

241

6

26


273


1

1

16

18


0.4

16.7

61.5

6.6

Total with LTVs

10,898

1,401

265


12,564


64

43

64

171


0.6

3.1

24.2

1.4

Total portfolio
















  average LTV

47%

51%

72%


48%











Other (1)

2,189

390

45


2,624


10

7

19

36


0.5

1.8

42.2

1.4

Investment

13,087

1,791

310


15,188


74

50

83

207


0.6

2.8

26.8

1.4

Development (2)

1,717

147

49


1,913


12

5

25

42


0.7

3.4

51.0

2.2

Total

14,804

1,938

359


17,101


86

55

108

249


0.6

2.8

30.1

1.5


-    Overall - The majority of the CRE portfolio was located and managed in the UK. Business appetite and strategy was aligned across NatWest Group.

-    2024 trends - In H1 2024, conditions enabled growth, particularly in Q1 2024, as investors/customers gained more confidence in the economic outlook. Key growth was in the favoured sectors of residential and industrial. The office sector remains challenging. NatWest Group remains comfortable with exposures held in this sub-sector but continues to subject them to detailed scrutiny.

-    Credit quality - Credit quality remained stable with very limited instances of specific cases deteriorating.

-    Risk appetite - Lending appetite is subject to regular review.

 

 

 

 

 

 

(1)

Relates mainly to business banking and unsecured corporate lending.

(2)

Relates to the development of commercial and residential properties. LTV is not a meaningful measure for this type of lending activity.

 

 


Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)

The flow statements that follow show the main ECL and related income statement movements. They also show the changes in ECL as well as the changes in related financial assets used in determining ECL. Due to differences in scope, exposures may differ from those reported in other tables, principally in relation to exposures in Stage 1 and Stage 2. These differences do not have a material ECL effect. Other points to note:

-    Financial assets include treasury liquidity portfolios, comprising balances at central banks and debt securities, as well as loans. Both modelled and non-modelled portfolios are included.

-    Stage transfers (for example, exposures moving from Stage 1 into Stage 2) are a key feature of the ECL movements, with the net re-measurement cost of transitioning to a worse stage being a primary driver of income statement charges. Similarly, there is an ECL benefit for accounts improving stage.

-    Changes in risk parameters shows the reassessment of the ECL within a given stage, including any ECL overlays and residual income statement gains or losses at the point of write-off or accounting write-down.

-    Other (P&L only items) includes any subsequent changes in the value of written-down assets (for example, fortuitous recoveries) along with other direct write-off items such as direct recovery costs. Other (P&L only items) affects the income statement but does not affect balance sheet ECL movements. 

-    Amounts written-off represent the gross asset written-down against accounts with ECL, including the net asset write-down for any debt sale activity.

-    There were some flows from Stage 1 into Stage 3 including transfers due to unexpected default events with a post model adjustment in place for Commercial & Institutional to account for this risk.

-    The effect of any change in post model adjustments during the year is typically reported under changes in risk parameters, as are any effects arising from changes to the underlying models. Refer to the section on Governance and post model adjustments for further details.

-    All movements are captured monthly and aggregated. Interest suspended post default is included within Stage 3 ECL, with the movement in the value of suspended interest during the year reported under currency translation and other adjustments.


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

NatWest Group total

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

504,345

709

 

40,294

976

 

5,621

1,960

 

550,260

3,645

Currency translation and other adjustments

(907)

-

 

(29)

-

 

73

93

 

(863)

93

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(20,089)

(104)

 

20,089

104

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

15,305

341

 

(15,305)

(341)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(126)

(2)

 

(1,643)

(145)

 

1,769

147

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

175

9

 

277

18

 

(452)

(27)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(242)

 

 

328

 

 

157

 

 

243

Changes in risk parameters

 

(195)

 

 

(46)

 

 

165

 

 

(76)

Other changes in net exposure

(396)

74

 

(5,024)

(89)

 

(918)

(85)

 

(6,338)

(100)

Other (P&L only items)

 

(1)

 

 

(3)

 

 

(15)

 

 

(19)

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(364)

 

 

190

 

 

222

 

 

48

Transfers to disposal groups and fair value

(296)

(5)

 

(8)

(3)

 

(13)

(10)

 

(317)

(18)

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(369)

(369)

 

(369)

(369)

Unwinding of discount

-

-

 

 

-

 

 

(75)

 

 

(75)

At 30 June 2024

498,011

585

 

38,651

802

 

5,711

1,956

 

542,373

3,343

Net carrying amount

497,426

 

 

37,849

 

 

3,755

 

 

539,030

 

At 1 January 2023

507,539

632


48,482

1,043


5,231

1,759


561,252

3,434

2023 movements

(26,623)

29


(3,867)

(52)


314

146


(30,176)

123

At 30 June 2023

480,916

661


44,615

991


5,545

1,905


531,076

3,557

Net carrying amount

480,255



43,624



3,640



527,519




Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)

 


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Retail Banking - mortgages

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

174,038

87

 

17,827

60

 

2,068

250

 

193,933

397

Currency translation and other adjustments

-

1

 

-

(1)

 

53

53

 

53

53

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(9,955)

(12)

 

9,955

12

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

5,702

12

 

(5,702)

(12)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(33)

-

 

(531)

(4)

 

564

4

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

16

-

 

155

4

 

(171)

(4)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(7)

 

 

14

 

 

3

 

 

10

Changes in risk parameters

 

(28)

 

 

(1)

 

 

48

 

 

19

Other changes in net exposure

(2,775)

(4)

 

(1,387)

(4)

 

(265)

(35)

 

(4,427)

(43)

Other (P&L only items)

 

(1)

 

 

-

 

 

(2)

 

 

(3)

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(40)

 

 

9

 

 

14

 

 

(17)

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(8)

(8)

 

(8)

(8)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(31)

 

 

(31)

At 30 June 2024

166,993

49

 

20,317

68

 

2,241

280

 

189,551

397

Net carrying amount

166,944

 

 

20,249

 

 

1,961

 

 

189,154

 

At 1 January 2023

165,264

79


18,831

61


1,762

215


185,857

355

2023 movements

4,527

12


834

3


85

19


5,446

34

At 30 June 2023

169,791

91


19,665

64


1,847

234


191,303

389

Net carrying amount

169,700



19,601



1,613



190,914


 

-

ECL levels for mortgages remained stable overall during H1 2024, with growth in Stage 3 ECL offset by a reduction in good book ECL, primarily driven by the reduction in economic uncertainty post model adjustment levels.

-

As well as a net reduction in book size, aligned to trends in the UK mortgage market, the decrease in Stage 1 ECL was also driven by the cost of living post model adjustment reduction, which proportionately allocated more ECL to Stage 1 given the forward-looking nature of the affordability threat. Refer to the Governance and post model adjustments section for further details.

-

The Stage 3 inflows remained broadly stable, with signs of improvement in default rates in recent months. Default rates had been increasing during 2023 reflecting slightly poorer arrears performance on mortgages recently rolled-off onto higher product rates. The increase in Stage 3 ECL primarily reflected increases in ECL for post-default interest alongside lower levels of write-offs.

-

There were net flows into Stage 2 from Stage 1 with an upward trend in early arrears coupled with the collective migration into Stage 2 of higher risk customers utilising new Mortgage Charter treatments (approximately £0.9 billion exposure).

-

The relatively small ECL cost for net re-measurement on stage transfer included the effect of risk targeted ECL adjustments, when previously in the good book. Refer to the Governance and post model adjustments section for further details.



 

-   

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)

 


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Retail Banking - credit cards

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

3,475

70

 

2,046

204

 

146

89

 

5,667

363

Currency translation and other adjustments

-

-

 

-

-

 

2

2

 

2

2

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(814)

(16)

 

814

16

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

746

52

 

(746)

(52)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(11)

-

 

(77)

(29)

 

88

29

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

1

-

 

4

2

 

(5)

(2)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(31)

 

 

74

 

 

21

 

 

64

Changes in risk parameters

 

1

 

 

3

 

 

9

 

 

13

Other changes in net exposure

726

5

 

(219)

(30)

 

(24)

(1)

 

483

(26)

Other (P&L only items)

 

-

 

 

1

 

 

-

 

 

1

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(25)

 

 

48

 

 

29

 

 

52

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(38)

(38)

 

(38)

(38)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(4)

 

 

(4)

At 30 June 2024

4,123

81

 

1,822

188

 

169

105

 

6,114

374

Net carrying amount

4,042

 

 

1,634

 

 

64

 

 

5,740

 

At 1 January 2023

3,062

61


1,098

120


113

71


4,273

252

2023 movements

118

(2)


422

25


13

12


553

35

At 30 June 2023

3,180

59


1,520

145


126

83


4,826

287

Net carrying amount

3,121



1,375



43



4,539


 

-    Overall ECL for cards remained broadly in-line with the 2023 year-end, with portfolio growth mitigated by stable portfolio performance and PD trends.

-    While portfolio performance remained stable, a net flow into Stage 2 from Stage 1 was observed in Q1 2024 with the typical maturation of lending after a period of strong growth in recent years albeit Stage 2 reduced during the second quarter as PDs reduced after PD modelling updates.

-    Credit card balances continued to grow during 2024, reflecting continued customer demand whilst remaining within risk appetite.

-    Flow rates into Stage 3 reduced in H1 2024, in line with broader portfolio performance.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)

 


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Retail Banking - other personal unsecured

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

5,240

149

 

1,657

238

 

963

758

 

7,860

1,145

Currency translation and other adjustments

-

-

 

-

1

 

8

8

 

8

9

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(854)

(40)

 

854

40

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

953

137

 

(953)

(137)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(37)

(1)

 

(157)

(68)

 

194

69

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

4

1

 

12

5

 

(16)

(6)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(99)

 

 

133

 

 

13

 

 

47

Changes in risk parameters

 

(42)

 

 

7

 

 

63

 

 

28

Other changes in net exposure

411

40

 

(188)

(19)

 

(80)

(22)

 

143

(1)

Other (P&L only items)

 

-

 

 

(1)

 

 

14

 

 

13

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(101)

 

 

120

 

 

68

 

 

87

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(224)

(224)

 

(224)

(224)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(18)

 

 

(18)

At 30 June 2024

5,717

145

 

1,225

200

 

845

641

 

7,787

986

Net carrying amount

5,572

 

 

1,025

 

 

204

 

 

6,801

 

At 1 January 2023

4,784

111


2,028

269


779

631


7,591

1,011

2023 movements

292

21


(147)

(39)


111

90


256

72

At 30 June 2023

5,076

132


1,881

230


890

721


7,847

1,083

Net carrying amount

4,944



1,651



169



6,764


 

-    Total ECL decreased, mainly in Stage 3 due to the reduction of balances from debt sale activity on Personal unsecured portfolios of £0.2 billion.

-    Stable portfolio performance and updates to PD modelling resulted in a net migration from Stage 2 into Stage 1 with performing book ECL and coverage levels showing a modest reduction since the 2023 year-end, supported by an improved economic outlook.

-    Flow rates into Stage 3 reduced in H1 2024, in line with broader portfolio performance.

-    Unsecured retail performing balances grew steadily during H1 2024, largely in line with industry trends.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Commercial & Institutional total

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

176,302

356

 

17,029

447

 

2,161

819

 

195,492

1,622

Currency translation and other adjustments

(436)

(1)

 

(29)

1

 

12

27

 

(453)

27

Inter-group transfers

-

-

 

-

-

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(7,758)

(35)

 

7,758

35

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

6,940

130

 

(6,940)

(130)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(34)

-

 

(761)

(44)

 

795

44

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

125

7

 

93

8

 

(218)

(15)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(98)

 

 

102

 

 

121

 

 

125

Changes in risk parameters

 

(114)

 

 

(49)

 

 

42

 

 

(121)

Other changes in net exposure

4,452

30

 

(3,109)

(36)

 

(493)

(28)

 

850

(34)

Other (P&L only items)

 

-

 

 

(3)

 

 

(24)

 

 

(27)

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(182)

 

 

14

 

 

111

 

 

(57)

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(99)

(99)

 

(99)

(99)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(19)

 

 

(19)

At 30 June 2024

179,591

275

 

14,041

334

 

2,158

892

 

195,790

1,501

Net carrying amount

179,316

 

 

13,707

 

 

1,266

 

 

194,289

 

At 1 January 2023

160,352

342


24,711

534


2,198

747


187,261

1,623

2023 movements

1,819

(9)


(4,368)

(27)


75

18


(2,474)

(18)

At 30 June 2023

162,171

333


20,343

507


2,273

765


184,787

1,605

Net carrying amount

161,838



19,836



1,508



183,182


 

-    ECL levels decreased during H1 2024 with significant reductions in Stage 1 and Stage 2 partially offset by increases in Stage 3. Improved economic variables and risk metrics reduced Stage 1 and Stage 2 ECL, with lower PDs contributing to reductions in modelled ECL and post model adjustments.

-    A reduction in post model adjustments led to a £97 million reduction across Stage 1 and Stage 2.

-    Stage 3 ECL and exposure increased, mainly due to transfers into Stage 3 and the re-measurement of ECL at the point of transfer. This was partially offset by write-offs. 

-    Exposure levels in Stage 1 and 2 remained broadly consistent with new exposures captured in Stage 1 offset by repayments in Stage 2.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)


Stage 1

 

Stage 2

 

Stage 3

 

Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Commercial & Institutional - corporate

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

61,402

226

 

12,275

344

 

1,454

602

 

75,131

1,172

Currency translation and other adjustments

(88)

(1)

 

(21)

1

 

11

22

 

(98)

22

Inter-group transfers

86

-

 

35

2

 

2

1

 

123

3

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(5,045)

(26)

 

5,045

26

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

4,772

98

 

(4,772)

(98)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(30)

-

 

(530)

(30)

 

560

30

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

100

5

 

66

6

 

(166)

(11)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(75)

 

 

76

 

 

60

 

 

61

Changes in risk parameters

 

(67)

 

 

(39)

 

 

28

 

 

(78)

Other changes in net exposure

2,119

14

 

(2,003)

(25)

 

(313)

(20)

 

(197)

(31)

Other (P&L only items)

 

-

 

 

(4)

 

 

(21)

 

 

(25)

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(128)

 

 

8

 

 

47

 

 

(73)

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(88)

(88)

 

(88)

(88)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(13)

 

 

(13)

At 30 June 2024

63,316

174

 

10,095

263

 

1,460

611

 

74,871

1,048

Net carrying amount

63,142

 

 

9,832

 

 

849

 

 

73,823

 

 

-    ECL levels decreased during H1 2024 with significant reductions in Stage 1 and Stage 2. Improved economic variables and risk metrics reduced Stage 1 and Stage 2 ECL, with lower PDs contributing to reductions in modelled ECL and post model adjustments.

-    Stage 3 exposure increased due to transfers into Stage 3, partially offset by repayments and write-offs. Stage 3 ECL marginally increased with the impact from transfers and the re-measurement of ECL at the point of transfer, largely offset by write-offs. 

-    Exposure levels in the performing portfolio, Stage 1 and Stage 2, remained broadly consistent with new exposures captured in Stage 1 offset by repayments in Stage 2.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)

 


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Commercial & Institutional - property

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

26,040

94

 

3,155

89

 

606

195

 

29,801

378

Currency translation and other adjustments

(5)

-

 

(2)

(1)

 

-

7

 

(7)

6

Inter-group transfers

(30)

-

 

(23)

(2)

 

(2)

-

 

(55)

(2)

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(1,869)

(7)

 

1,869

7

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

1,622

27

 

(1,622)

(27)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

(4)

-

 

(160)

(9)

 

164

9

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

21

2

 

24

2

 

(45)

(4)

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(19)

 

 

22

 

 

30

 

 

33

Changes in risk parameters

 

(38)

 

 

(12)

 

 

11

 

 

(39)

Other changes in net exposure

751

9

 

(266)

(7)

 

(150)

(6)

 

335

(4)

Other (P&L only items)

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

-

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(48)

 

 

3

 

 

35

 

 

(10)

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(10)

(10)

 

(10)

(10)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(5)

 

 

(5)

At 30 June 2024

26,526

68

 

2,975

62

 

563

227

 

30,064

357

Net carrying amount

26,458

 

 

2,913

 

 

336

 

 

29,707

 

 

-    There was a small reduction in ECL during H1 2024 with decreases in Stage 1 and Stage 2 partially offset by increases in Stage 3.

-    Improved economic variables and risk metrics reduced Stage 1 and Stage 2 ECL, with lower PDs contributing to reductions in modelled ECL and post model adjustments.

-    Stage 3 exposure reduced with the primary driver being repayments on the collective portfolio. The increase in Stage 3 ECL was largely attributable to one commercial real estate customer.

-    Exposure levels in the performing portfolio, Stage 1 and Stage 2, increased with new exposures captured in Stage 1 more than offsetting repayments in Stage 2.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Flow statements (reviewed)

 


Stage 1


Stage 2

 

Stage 3


Total


Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 

 

Financial

 


assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

 

assets

ECL

Commercial & Institutional - other

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

At 1 January 2024

88,860

36

 

1,599

14

 

101

22

 

90,560

72

Currency translation and other adjustments

(344)

-

 

(5)

1

 

1

(1)

 

(348)

-

Inter-group transfers

(56)

-

 

(12)

-

 

-

-

 

(68)

-

Transfers from Stage 1 to Stage 2

(844)

(2)

 

844

2

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 2 to Stage 1

547

5

 

(547)

(5)

 

-

-

 

-

-

Transfers to Stage 3

-

-

 

(71)

(6)

 

71

6

 

-

-

Transfers from Stage 3

4

-

 

3

-

 

(7)

-

 

-

-

Net re-measurement of ECL on stage transfer

 

(3)

 

 

4

 

 

30

 

 

31

Changes in risk parameters

 

(8)

 

 

2

 

 

2

 

 

(4)

Other changes in net exposure

1,582

5

 

(840)

(3)

 

(30)

(1)

 

712

1

Other (P&L only items)

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(2)

 

 

(2)

Income statement (releases)/charges

 

(6)

 

 

3

 

 

29

 

 

26

Amounts written-off

-

-

 

-

-

 

(1)

(1)

 

(1)

(1)

Unwinding of discount

 

-

 

 

-

 

 

(1)

 

 

(1)

At 30 June 2024

89,749

33

 

971

9

 

135

54

 

90,855

96

Net carrying amount

89,716

 

 

962

 

 

81

 

 

90,759

 

 

-    ECL levels increased during H1 2024 with a rise in Stage 3 only partially offset by reductions in Stage 1 and Stage 2.

-    Stage 3 exposure and ECL increased mainly related to an increase in ECL on newly defaulted individually assessed customers. These defaults also contributed to a reduction in Stage 2 as the ECL was transferred to Stage 3 at the point of default.



Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Stage 2 decomposition by a significant increase in credit risk trigger

The tables that follow show decomposition for the Personal and Wholesale portfolios.


UK mortgages

 

Credit cards

 

Other

 

Total

30 June 2024

£m

%

 

£m

%

 

£m

%

 

£m

%

Personal trigger (1)

 

 


 

 


 

 


 

 

PD movement

13,825

67.8

 

1,303

72.6

 

623

51.3

 

15,751

67.5

PD persistence

3,964

19.5

 

406

22.7

 

230

19.0

 

4,600

19.7

Adverse credit bureau recorded with credit reference agency

969

4.8

 

64

3.6

 

121

10.0

 

1,154

4.9

Forbearance support provided

162

0.8

 

1

0.1

 

11

0.9

 

174

0.7

Customers in collections

173

0.8

 

2

0.1

 

14

1.2

 

189

0.8

Collective SICR and other reasons (2)

1,141

5.6

 

16

0.9

 

200

16.5

 

1,357

5.8

Days past due >30

134

0.7

 

-

-

 

13

1.1

 

147

0.6


20,368

100.0

 

1,792

100.0

 

1,212

100.0

 

23,372

100.0


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 December 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Personal trigger (1)












PD movement

12,969

72.5


1,469

72.7


866

52.9


15,304

71.1

PD persistence

2,317

13.0


481

23.8


374

22.9


3,172

14.7

Adverse credit bureau recorded with credit reference agency

1,047

5.9


49

2.4


99

6.1


1,195

5.6

Forbearance support provided

137

0.8


1

-


11

0.7


149

0.7

Customers in collections

178

1.0


2

0.1


8

0.5


188

0.9

Collective SICR and other reasons (2)

1,087

6.1


20

1.0


266

16.3


1,373

6.4

Days past due >30

119

0.7


-

-


9

0.6


128

0.6


17,854

100.0


2,022

100.0


1,633

100.0


21,509

100.0

 

For the notes to the table refer to the following page.

-    The level of PD driven deterioration increased in the first half of 2024, mainly in the mortgage portfolio, reflecting some increases in the early arrears level and PD modelling updates. The modelling updates on unsecured portfolios at Q1 2024 resulted in a reduction in lifetime PDs. This drove a segment of lower risk cases out of PD deterioration at Q1 2024, with many now exited from Stage 2 after the PD persistence period of three months.

-    Higher risk mortgage customers who utilised the new Mortgage Charter measures continue to be collectively migrated into Stage 2, approximately £0.9 billion of exposures, and were captured in the collective SICR and other reasons category.

-    Accounts that were less than 30 days past due continued to represent the vast majority of the Stage 2 population.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Stage 2 decomposition by a significant increase in credit risk trigger


Property

 

Corporate

 

Financial institutions

 

Sovereign

 

Total

30 June 2024

£m

%

 

£m

%

 

£m

%

 

£m

%

 

£m

%

Wholesale trigger (1)










 

 

 

 

 

PD movement

1,742

57.6

 

6,664

66.1

 

422

77.0

 

-

-

 

8,828

63.5

PD persistence

68

2.3

 

248

2.5

 

3

0.5

 

-

-

 

319

2.3

Heightened Monitoring and Risk of Credit Loss

1,008

33.4

 

2,116

21.0

 

109

19.9

 

262

99.6

 

3,495

25.1

Forbearance support provided

45

1.5

 

386

3.8

 

6

1.1

 

-

-

 

437

3.1

Customers in collections

8

0.3

 

25

0.2

 

-

-

 

-

-

 

33

0.2

Collective SICR and other reasons (2)

112

3.7

 

522

5.2

 

7

1.3

 

1

0.4

 

642

4.6

Days past due >30

35

1.2

 

126

1.2

 

1

0.2

 

-

-

 

162

1.2


3,018

100.0

 

10,087

100.0

 

548

100.0

 

263

100.0

 

13,916

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 December 2023










 

 

 

 

 

Wholesale trigger (1)















PD movement

2,211

67.6


7,611

62.5


760

78.7


-

-


10,582

64.6

PD persistence

223

6.8


847

7.0


13

1.3


-

-


1,083

6.6

Heightened Monitoring and Risk of Credit Loss

563

17.2


2,630

21.7


120

12.4


-

-


3,313

20.2

Forbearance support provided

49

1.6


373

3.1


-

-


-

-


422

2.6

Customers in collections

7

0.2


23

0.2


-

-


-

-


30

0.2

Collective SICR and other reasons (2)

70

2.1


457

3.8


72

7.5


1

100.0


600

3.7

Days past due >30

147

4.5


204

1.7


1

0.1


-

-


352

2.1


3,270

100.0


12,145

100.0


966

100.0


1

100.0


16,382

100.0

 

(1)     The table is prepared on a hierarchical basis from top to bottom, for example, accounts with PD deterioration may also trigger backstop(s) but are only reported under PD deterioration.

(2)     Includes cases where a PD assessment cannot be made and accounts where the PD has deteriorated beyond a prescribed backstop threshold aligned to risk management practices.

 

-    PD deterioration continued to be the primary trigger of migration of exposures from Stage 1 into Stage 2. As the economic outlook improved, there was a reduction in cases triggering Stage 2.

-    Moving exposures to Heightened Monitoring or Risk of Credit Loss remains an important backstop indicator of a significant increase in credit risk. The exposures classified under this Stage 2 trigger increased over the year, mainly in property, where improved PDs meant less exposures were captured under the PD deterioration Stage 2 trigger.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Asset quality (reviewed)

The table below shows asset quality bands of gross loans and ECL, by stage, for the Personal portfolio.


Gross loans

 

ECL provisions

 

ECL provisions coverage


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

%

%

%

%

UK mortgages

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

100,746

8,061

-

108,807

 

20

20

-

40

 

0.0

0.3

-

0.0

AQ5-AQ8

81,760

11,399

-

93,159

 

29

43

-

72

 

0.0

0.4

-

0.1

AQ9 

166

908

-

1,074

 

-

6

-

6

 

-

0.7

-

0.6

AQ10 

-

-

2,446

2,446

 

-

-

302

302

 

-

-

12.4

12.4


182,672

20,368

2,446

205,486

 

49

69

302

420

 

0.0

0.3

12.4

0.2

Credit cards

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

126

-

-

126

 

1

-

-

1

 

0.8

-

-

0.8

AQ5-AQ8

4,292

1,718

-

6,010

 

80

173

-

253

 

1.9

10.1

-

4.2

AQ9 

13

74

-

87

 

1

16

-

17

 

7.7

21.6

-

19.5

AQ10 

-

-

158

158

 

-

-

105

105

 

-

-

66.5

66.5


4,431

1,792

158

6,381

 

82

189

105

376

 

1.9

10.6

66.5

5.9

Other personal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

708

107

-

815

 

8

14

-

22

 

1.1

13.1

-

2.7

AQ5-AQ8

6,729

972

-

7,701

 

135

140

-

275

 

2.0

14.4

-

3.6

AQ9 

71

133

-

204

 

6

45

-

51

 

8.5

33.8

-

25.0

AQ10 

-

-

857

857

 

-

-

656

656

 

-

-

76.6

76.6


7,508

1,212

857

9,577

 

149

199

656

1,004

 

2.0

16.4

76.6

10.5

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

101,580

8,168

-

109,748

 

29

34

-

63

 

0.0

0.4

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

92,781

14,089

-

106,870

 

244

356

-

600

 

0.3

2.5

-

0.6

AQ9 

250

1,115

-

1,365

 

7

67

-

74

 

2.8

6.0

-

5.4

AQ10 

-

-

3,461

3,461

 

-

-

1,063

1,063

 

-

-

30.7

30.7


194,611

23,372

3,461

221,444

 

280

457

1,063

1,800


0.1

2.0

30.7

0.8

 

 

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Asset quality (reviewed)


Gross loans


ECL provisions


ECL provisions coverage


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

31 December 2023

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

£m


%

%

%

%

UK mortgages















AQ1-AQ4

110,694

7,572

-

118,266


51

20

-

71


0.1

0.3

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

77,290

9,578

-

86,868


37

37

-

74


0.1

0.4

-

0.1

AQ9 

156

704

-

860


-

4

-

4


-

0.6

-

0.5

AQ10 

-

-

2,281

2,281


-

-

271

271


-

-

11.9

11.9


188,140

17,854

2,281

208,275


88

61

271

420


0.1

0.3

11.9

0.2

Credit cards















AQ1-AQ4

124

-

-

124


1

-

-

1


0.8

-

-

0.8

AQ5-AQ8

3,612

1,965

-

5,577


75

193

-

268


2.1

9.8

-

4.8

AQ9 

6

57

-

63


-

14

-

14


-

24.6

-

22.2

AQ10 

-

-

140

140


-

-

93

93


-

-

66.4

66.4


3,742

2,022

140

5,904


76

207

93

376


2.0

10.2

66.4

6.4

Other personal















AQ1-AQ4

764

150

-

914


11

23

-

34


1.4

15.3

-

3.7

AQ5-AQ8

6,178

1,374

-

7,552


138

180

-

318


2.2

13.1

-

4.2

AQ9 

41

109

-

150


3

35

-

38


7.3

32.1

-

25.3

AQ10 

-

-

979

979


-

-

778

778


-

-

79.5

79.5


6,983

1,633

979

9,595


152

238

778

1,168


2.2

14.6

79.5

12.2

Total















AQ1-AQ4

111,582

7,722

-

119,304


63

43

-

106


0.1

0.6

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

87,080

12,917

-

99,997


250

410

-

660


0.3

3.2

-

0.7

AQ9 

203

870

-

1,073


3

53

-

56


1.5

6.1

-

5.2

AQ10 

-

-

3,400

3,400


-

-

1,142

1,142


-

-

33.6

33.6


198,865

21,509

3,400

223,774


316

506

1,142

1,964


0.2

2.4

33.6

0.9

 

-    In the Personal portfolio, the majority of exposures were in the AQ4 and AQ5 bands and were within mortgages.

-    In other personal, the relatively high level of exposures in AQ10 reflected that impaired assets can be held on the balance sheet, with commensurate ECL provision, for up to six years.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Asset quality (reviewed)

The table below shows asset quality bands of gross loans and ECL, by stage, for the Wholesale portfolio.


Gross loans

 

ECL provisions

 

ECL provisions coverage


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

 

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

%

%

%

%

Property

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

15,257

1,000

-

16,257

 

13

8

-

21

 

0.1

0.8

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

13,607

1,955

-

15,562

 

60

54

-

114

 

0.4

2.8

-

0.7

AQ9 

8

63

-

71

 

-

4

-

4

 

-

6.4

-

5.6

AQ10 

-

-

728

728

 

-

-

232

232

 

-

-

31.9

31.9


28,872

3,018

728

32,618

 

73

66

232

371

 

0.3

2.2

31.9

1.1

Corporate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

25,616

1,040

-

26,656

 

18

12

-

30

 

0.1

1.2

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

39,331

8,797

-

48,128

 

162

239

-

401

 

0.4

2.7

-

0.8

AQ9 

27

250

-

277

 

-

19

-

19

 

-

7.6

-

6.9

AQ10 

-

-

1,527

1,527

 

-

-

613

613

 

-

-

40.1

40.1


64,974

10,087

1,527

76,588

 

180

270

613

1,063

 

0.3

2.7

40.1

1.4

Financial institutions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

52,008

413

-

52,421

 

24

1

-

25

 

0.1

0.2

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

4,093

123

-

4,216

 

15

5

-

20

 

0.4

4.1

-

0.5

AQ9 

2

12

-

14

 

-

1

-

1

 

-

8.3

-

7.1

AQ10 

-

-

74

74

 

-

-

44

44

 

-

-

59.5

59.5


56,103

548

74

56,725

 

39

7

44

90

 

0.1

1.3

59.5

0.2

Sovereign

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

1,287

1

-

1,288

 

13

1

-

14

 

1.0

100.0

-

1.1

AQ5-AQ8

-

130

-

130

 

-

1

-

1

 

-

0.8

-

0.8

AQ 9

-

132

-

132

 

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

AQ10 

-

-

22

22

 

-

-

4

4

 

-

-

18.2

18.2


1,287

263

22

1,572

 

13

2

4

19

 

1.0

0.8

18.2

1.2

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AQ1-AQ4

94,168

2,454

-

96,622

 

68

22

-

90

 

0.1

0.9

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

57,031

11,005

-

68,036

 

237

299

-

536

 

0.4

2.7

-

0.8

AQ9 

37

457

-

494

 

-

24

-

24

 

-

5.3

-

4.9

AQ10 

-

-

2,351

2,351

 

-

-

893

893

 

-

-

38.0

38.0


151,236

13,916

2,351

167,503

 

305

345

893

1,543

 

0.2

2.5

38.0

0.9

 

-    Asset quality was stable in property, other wholesale and financial institutions. There was a deterioration in sovereigns. 

-    Customer credit grades are reassessed as and when a request for financing is made, a scheduled customer credit review performed or a material credit event specific to that customer occurred. Credit grades are reassessed for all customers at least annually.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Banking activities continued

Asset quality (reviewed)


Gross loans


ECL provisions


ECL provisions coverage


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Total

31 December 2023

£m

£m

£m

£m


£m

£m

£m

£m


%

%

%

%

Property















AQ1-AQ4

14,961

405

-

15,366


16

5

-

21


0.1

1.2

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

12,346

2,799

-

15,145


86

88

-

174


0.7

3.1

-

1.2

AQ9 

9

66

-

75


-

5

-

5


-

7.6

-

6.7

AQ10 

-

-

621

621


-

-

198

198


-

-

31.9

31.9


27,316

3,270

621

31,207


102

98

198

398


0.4

3.0

31.9

1.3

Corporate















AQ1-AQ4

25,914

937

-

26,851


27

13

-

40


0.1

1.4

-

0.2

AQ5-AQ8

37,738

10,935

-

48,673


207

323

-

530


0.6

3.0

-

1.1

AQ9 

38

273

-

311


-

20

-

20


-

7.3

-

6.4

AQ10 

-

-

1,504

1,504


-

-

611

611


-

-

40.6

40.6


63,690

12,145

1,504

77,339


234

356

611

1,201


0.4

2.9

40.6

1.6

Financial institutions















AQ1-AQ4

52,702

665

-

53,367


28

6

-

34


0.1

0.9

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

3,402

284

-

3,686


16

9

-

25


0.5

3.2

-

0.7

AQ9 

1

17

-

18


-

-

-

-


-

-

-

-

AQ10 

-

-

16

16


-

-

7

7


-

-

43.8

43.8


56,105

966

16

57,087


44

15

7

66


0.1

1.6

43.8

0.1

Sovereign















AQ1-AQ4

2,487

1

-

2,488


13

1

-

14


0.5

nm

-

0.6

AQ5-AQ8

123

-

-

123


-

-

-

-


-

-

-

-

AQ9 

-

-

-

-


-

-

-

-


-

-

-

-

AQ10 

-

-

22

22


-

-

2

2


-

-

9.1

9.1


2,610

1

22

2,633


13

1

2

16


0.5

nm

9.1

0.6

Total















AQ1-AQ4

96,064

2,008

-

98,072


84

25

-

109


0.1

1.3

-

0.1

AQ5-AQ8

53,609

14,018

-

67,627


309

420

-

729


0.6

3.0

-

1.1

AQ9 

48

356

-

404


-

25

-

25


-

7.0

-

6.2

AQ10 

-

-

2,163

2,163


-

-

818

818


-

-

37.8

37.8


149,721

16,382

2,163

168,266


393

470

818

1,681


0.3

2.9

37.8

1.0

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Trading activities

This section details the credit risk profile of NatWest Group's trading activities.

Securities financing transactions and collateral (reviewed)

The table below shows securities financing transactions in Commercial & Institutional and Central items & other. Balance sheet captions include balances held at all classifications under IFRS.


Reverse repos

 

Repos


 

Of which:

Outside netting

 

 

Of which:

Outside netting


Total

can be offset

arrangements

 

Total

can be offset

arrangements

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

Gross

77,085

77,000

85

 

74,623

73,535

1,088

IFRS offset

(32,309)

(32,309)

-

 

(32,309)

(32,309)

-

Carrying value

44,776

44,691

85

 

42,314

41,226

1,088


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Master netting arrangements

(1,454)

(1,454)

-

 

(1,454)

(1,454)

-

Securities collateral

(42,965)

(42,965)

-

 

(39,772)

(39,772)

-

Potential for offset not recognised under IFRS

(44,419)

(44,419)

-

 

(41,226)

(41,226)

-

Net

357

272

85

 

1,088

-

1,088









31 December 2023








Gross

77,508

77,050

458


66,767

66,047

720

IFRS offset

(25,903)

(25,903)

-


(25,903)

(25,903)

-

Carrying value

51,605

51,147

458


40,864

40,144

720

Master netting arrangements

(669)

(669)

-


(669)

(669)

-

Securities collateral

(50,287)

(50,287)

-


(39,475)

(39,475)

-

Potential for offset not recognised under IFRS

(50,956)

(50,956)

-


(40,144)

(40,144)

-

Net

649

191

458


720

-

720



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Trading activities continued

Derivatives (reviewed)

The table below shows derivatives by type of contract. The master netting agreements and collateral shown do not result in a net presentation on the balance sheet under IFRS. A significant proportion of the derivatives relate to trading activities in Commercial & Institutional. The table also includes hedging derivatives in Central items & other.

 


30 June 2024


31 December 2023


Notional

 

 

 






GBP

USD

EUR

Other

Total

Assets

Liabilities


Notional

Assets

Liabilities


£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£m

£m


£bn

£m

£m

Gross exposure

 

 

 

 

 

86,136

82,013



99,501

96,264

IFRS offset

 

 

 

 

 

(18,622)

(21,164)



(20,597)

(23,869)

Carrying value

3,378

3,188

5,651

1,191

13,408

67,514

60,849


13,403

78,904

72,395

Of which:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Interest rate (1)

3,046

1,705

5,004

268

10,023

40,925

35,137


10,268

44,563

38,483

Exchange rate

331

1,478

637

923

3,369

26,446

25,442


3,120

34,161

33,586

Credit

1

5

10

-

16

143

270


15

180

326

Carrying value

 

 

 

 

13,408

67,514

60,849


13,403

78,904

72,395

Counterparty mark-to-market netting

 

 

 

 

 

(50,530)

(50,530)



(60,355)

(60,355)

Cash collateral

 

 

 

 

 

(11,296)

(5,650)



(12,284)

(6,788)

Securities collateral

 

 

 

 

 

(3,503)

(1,142)



(3,408)

(1,664)

Net exposure

 

 

 

 

 

2,185

3,527



2,857

3,588

Banks (2)

 

 

 

 

 

217

441



335

555

Other financial institutions (3)

 

 

 

 

 

1,117

1,260



1,422

1,304

Corporate (4)

 

 

 

 

 

815

1,808



1,063

1,690

Government (5)

 

 

 

 

 

36

18



37

39

Net exposure

 

 

 

 

 

2,185

3,527



2,857

3,588

UK

 

 

 

 

 

1,148

1,871



1,283

1,912

Europe

 

 

 

 

 

551

1,085



800

1,209

US

 

 

 

 

 

404

383



607

381

RoW

 

 

 

 

 

82

188



167

86

Net exposure

 

 

 

 

 

2,185

3,527



2,857

3,588













Asset quality of uncollateralised derivative assets












AQ1-AQ4

 

 

 

 

 

1,871




2,382


AQ5-AQ8

 

 

 

 

 

312




471


AQ9-AQ10

 

 

 

 

 

2




4


Net exposure

 

 

 

 

 

2,185




2,857


(1)       The notional amount of interest rate derivatives included £6,950 billion (31 December 2023 - £7,280 billion) in respect of contracts cleared through central clearing counterparties.

(2)       Transactions with certain counterparties with whom NatWest Group has netting arrangements but collateral is not posted on a daily basis; certain transactions with specific terms that may not fall within netting and collateral arrangements; derivative positions in certain jurisdictions where the collateral agreements are not deemed to be legally enforceable.

(3)       Includes transactions with securitisation vehicles and funds where collateral posting is contingent on NatWest Group's external rating.

(4)       Mainly large corporates with whom NatWest Group may have netting arrangements in place, but operational capability does not support collateral posting.

(5)       Sovereigns and supranational entities with no collateral arrangements, collateral arrangements that are not considered enforceable, or one-way collateral agreements in their favour.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Credit risk - Trading activities continued

Debt securities (reviewed)

The table below shows debt securities held at mandatory fair value through profit or loss by issuer as well as ratings based on the lowest of Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. Refer to Note 9 Trading assets and liabilities for details on short positions.


Central and local government

Financial

 

 


UK

US

Other

institutions

Corporate

Total

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

AAA

-

-

1,302

1,406

-

2,708

AA to AA+

-

5,507

45

672

12

6,236

A to AA-

5,170

-

2,049

504

378

8,101

BBB- to A-

-

-

1,250

465

645

2,360

Non-investment grade

-

-

-

153

178

331

Total

5,170

5,507

4,646

3,200

1,213

19,736








31 December 2023







AAA

-

-

1,333

1,132

-

2,465

AA to AA+

-

2,600

19

762

4

3,385

A to AA-

2,729

-

1,017

251

283

4,280

BBB- to A-

-

-

693

295

489

1,477

Non-investment grade

-

-

-

198

149

347

Total

2,729

2,600

3,062

2,638

925

11,954

 



 


Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk 

Introduction

NatWest Group takes a comprehensive approach to the management of capital, liquidity and funding, underpinned by frameworks, risk appetite and policies, to manage and mitigate capital, liquidity and funding risks. The framework ensures the tools and capability are in place to facilitate the management and mitigation of risk ensuring that NatWest Group operates within its regulatory requirements and risk appetite.

Key developments since 31 December 2023

 

CET1 ratio

13.6%

(as at 31 December 2023 - 13.4%)

 

MREL

£57.3bn

(as at 31 December 2023 - £55.8bn)

 

RWAs

£180.8bn

(as at 31 December 2023 - £183.0bn)

The CET1 ratio increased by 20 basis points to 13.6%. The increase in the CET1 ratio was due to a £2.2 billion decrease in RWAs and a £0.2 billion increase in CET1 capital.

The CET1 capital increase was mainly driven by an attributable profit to ordinary shareholders of £2.1 billion and other movements on reserves and regulatory adjustments of £0.1 billion partially offset by a directed buyback of £1.2 billion and a foreseeable ordinary dividend accrual of £0.8 billion.

 

Minimum Requirements of own funds and Eligible Liabilities increased by £1.5 billion to £57.3 billion driven by a £1.0 billion increase in Tier 1 capital and a £0.6 billion increase in MREL eligible Tier 2 capital. The increase in capital was driven by issuance of $1.0 billion Additional Tier 1 capital  and $1.0 billion Tier 2 capital in the period. There was an immaterial decrease in senior unsecured debt following redemption of a €0.8 billion debt instrument and a $2 billion debt instrument offset by the issuance of USD debt instruments totalling $2.8 billion.

 

Total RWAs decreased by £2.2 billion to £180.8 billion during H1 2024 reflecting:

 

-      a decrease in credit risk RWAs of £2.7 billion, primarily due to active RWA management partially offset by drawdowns and new facilities within Commercial & Institutional. 

-      a decrease of £0.7 billion in counterparty credit risk driven by reduced over-the-counter exposures and securities financing transactions.

-      a decrease in market risk RWAs of £0.4 billion, predominantly driven by risk reduction activity.

-      an increase of £1.6 billion in operational risk RWAs following the annual recalculation as a result of higher income compared to 2020.

 

 

UK leverage ratio

5.2%

(as at 31 December 2023 - 5.0%)

 

Liquidity portfolio

£227.0bn

(as at 31 December 2023 - £222.8bn)

 

LCR

151%

(as at 31 December 2023 - 144%)

 

NSFR

139%

(as at 31 December 2023 - 133%)

The leverage ratio increased by 20 basis points to 5.2%, driven by a £1.0 billion increase in Tier 1 capital partially offset by a £2.9 billion increase in leverage exposure. The key drivers in the leverage exposure were an increase in other off- balance sheet items partially offset by a decrease in other financial assets.

 

The liquidity portfolio increased by £4.2 billion to £227.0 billion. Primary liquidity increased by £12.3 billion to £160.4 billion, driven by an increase in customer deposits and wholesale funding partly offset by capital distributions (share buyback and dividends). Secondary liquidity decreased £8.1 billion due to a decrease in pre-positioned collateral at the Bank of England.

 

The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) increased by 7 percentage points to 151%, during H1 2024, driven by an increase in customer deposits partly offset by capital distributions (share buyback and dividends).

 


The Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) increased 6% to 139% driven by increased customer deposits and increased wholesale funding.


Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA) and Minimum Capital Requirements

NatWest Group is subject to minimum capital requirements relative to RWAs. The table below summarises the minimum capital requirements (the sum of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2A), and the additional capital buffers which are held in excess of the regulatory minimum requirements and are usable in stress.

Where the CET1 ratio falls below the sum of the minimum capital and the combined buffer requirement, there is a subsequent automatic restriction on the amount available to service discretionary payments (including AT1 coupons), known as the MDA. Note that different capital requirements apply to individual legal entities or sub-groups and that the table shown does not reflect any incremental PRA buffer requirements, which are not disclosable.

The current capital position provides significant headroom above both NatWest Group's minimum requirements and its MDA threshold requirements.

Type

CET1

Total Tier 1

Total capital

Pillar 1 requirements

4.5%

6.0%

8.0%

Pillar 2A requirements

1.8%

2.4%

3.2%

Minimum Capital Requirements

6.3%

8.4%

11.2%

Capital conservation buffer

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

Countercyclical capital buffer (1) 

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

MDA threshold (2)

10.5%

 

n/a

 

n/a

Overall capital requirement

10.5%

12.6%

15.4%

Capital ratios at 30 June 2024

13.6%

16.2%

19.5%

Headroom (3,4)

3.1%

3.6%

4.1%

(1)     The UK countercyclical buffer (CCyB) rate is currently being maintained at 2%. This may vary in either direction in the future subject to how risks develop. Foreign exposures may be subject to different CCyB rates depending on the rate set in those jurisdictions.

(2)     Pillar 2A requirements for NatWest Group are set as a variable amount with the exception of some fixed add-ons.

(3)     The headroom does not reflect excess distributable capital and may vary over time.

(4)     Headroom as at 31 December 2023 was CET1 2.9%, Total Tier 1 2.9% and Total Capital 3.0%.

 

 

 


 

Leverage ratios

The table below summarises the minimum ratios of capital to leverage exposure under the binding PRA UK leverage framework applicable for NatWest Group.

Type

CET1

Total Tier 1

Minimum ratio

2.44%

3.25%

Countercyclical leverage ratio buffer (1)

0.6%

0.6%

Total

3.04%

3.85%

(1)       The countercyclical leverage ratio buffer is set at 35% of NatWest Group's CCyB.

 

 


Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Capital and leverage ratios

The table below sets out the key capital and leverage ratios. NatWest Group is subject to the requirements set out in the UK CRR therefore the capital and leverage ratios are presented under these frameworks on a transitional basis.


30 June

31 December


2024

2023

Capital adequacy ratios (1)

%

%

CET1

13.6

13.4

Tier 1

16.2

15.5

Total

19.5

18.4




Capital

£m

£m

Tangible equity

25,241

25,653


 


Expected loss less impairment

(34)

-

Prudential valuation adjustment

(233)

(279)

Deferred tax assets

(822)

(979)

Own credit adjustments

19

(10)

Pension fund assets

(161)

(143)

Cash flow hedging reserve

1,812

1,899

Foreseeable ordinary dividends

(839)

(1,013)

Adjustment for trust assets (2)

(365)

(365)

Foreseeable charges

(50)

(525)

Adjustments under IFRS 9 transitional arrangements

39

202

Total regulatory adjustments

(634)

(1,213)


 


CET1 capital

24,607

24,440


 


Additional AT1 capital

4,670

3,875

Tier 1 capital

29,277

28,315


 


End-point Tier 2 capital

5,924

5,317

Tier 2 capital

5,924

5,317

Total regulatory capital

35,201

33,632


 


Risk-weighted assets

 


Credit risk

144,852

147,598

Counterparty credit risk

7,139

7,830

Market risk

6,956

7,363

Operational risk

21,821

20,198

Total RWAs

180,768

182,989


 

(1)       Based on current PRA rules, includes the transitional arrangements for the capital impact of IFRS 9 expected credit loss (ECL) accounting. The impact of the IFRS 9 transitional adjustments at 30 June 2024 was £39 million for CET1 capital, £39 million for total capital and £1 million RWAs (31 December 2023 - £0.2 billion CET1 capital, £54 million total capital and £17 million RWAs). Excluding this adjustment, the CET1 ratio would be 13.6% (31 December 2023 - 13.2%). Tier 1 capital ratio would be 16.2% (31 December 2023 - 15.4%) and the Total capital ratio would be 19.5% (31 December 2023 - 18.4%).

(2)       Prudent deduction in respect of agreement with the pension fund.

 


Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Capital and leverage ratios continued

 

30 June

31 December

 

2024

2023

Leverage

£m

£m

Cash and balances at central banks

115,833

104,262

Trading assets

45,974

45,551

Derivatives

67,514

78,904

Financial assets

437,909

439,449

Other assets

22,116

23,605

Assets of disposal groups

992

902

Total assets

690,338

692,673

Derivatives

 


   - netting and variation margin

(66,846)

(79,299)

   - potential future exposures

16,829

17,212

Securities financing transactions gross up

1,645

1,868

Other off balance sheet items

55,003

50,961

Regulatory deductions and other adjustments

(15,782)

(16,043)

Claims on central banks

(112,377)

(100,735)

Exclusion of bounce back loans

(3,084)

(3,794)

UK leverage exposure 

565,726

562,843

UK leverage ratio (%) (1)

5.2

5.0

(1)       The UK leverage exposure and transitional Tier 1 capital are calculated in accordance with current PRA rules. Excluding the IFRS 9 transitional adjustment, the UK leverage ratio would be 5.2% (31 December 2023 - 5.0%).

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Capital flow statement

The table below analyses the movement in CET1, AT1 and Tier 2 capital for the half year ended 30 June 2024. It is presented on a transitional basis based on current PRA rules.


CET1

AT1

Tier 2

Total


£m

£m

£m

£m

At 31 December 2023

24,440

3,875

5,317

33,632

Attributable profit for the period

2,099

-

-

2,099

Directed buyback 

(1,241)

-

-

(1,241)

Foreseeable ordinary dividends 

(839)

-

-

(839)

Foreign exchange reserve

(53)

-

-

(53)

FVOCI reserve

6

-

-

6

Own credit

29

-

-

29

Share capital and reserve movements in respect of employee share schemes

143

-

-

143

Goodwill and intangibles deduction

24

-

-

24

Deferred tax assets

157

-

-

157

Prudential valuation adjustments

46

-

-

46

New issues of capital instruments

-

795

788

1,583

Redemption of capital instruments

-

-

(34)

(34)

Foreign exchange movements

-

-

(19)

(19)

Adjustment under IFRS 9 transitional arrangements

(163)

 

 

(163)

Expected loss less impairment

(34)

 

 

(34)

Other movements

(7)

-

(128)

(135)

At 30 June 2024

24,607

4,670

5,924

35,201

-      For CET1 movements refer to the key points on page 60.

-      AT1 movements reflects the £0.8 billion in relation to $1.0 billion 8.125% Reset Perpetual Subordinated Contingent Convertible Notes issued in May 2024.

-      Tier 2 instrument movements include £0.8 billion in relation to $1.0 billion 6.475% Fixed to Fixed Reset Tier 2 Notes 2034 issued in March 2024, partially offset by the £0.1 billion redemption of 5.125% Subordinated Tier 2 Notes 2024 in May 2024 and foreign exchange movements.

-      Within Tier 2, there was also a decrease in the Tier 2 surplus provisions.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk 

Capital resources (reviewed)

NatWest Group's regulatory capital is assessed against minimum requirements that are set out under the UK CRR to determine the strength of its capital base. This note shows a reconciliation of shareholders' equity to regulatory capital.


30 June

31 December


2024

2023


£m

£m

Shareholders' equity (excluding non-controlling interests)



Shareholders' equity

 37,521

 37,157

Other equity instruments

(4,690)

(3,890)


 32,831

 33,267

Regulatory adjustments and deductions

 


Own credit

 19

(10)

Defined benefit pension fund adjustment

(161)

(143)

Cash flow hedging reserve 

 1,812

 1,899

Deferred tax assets

(822)

(979)

Prudential valuation adjustments

(233)

(279)

Goodwill and other intangible assets

(7,590)

(7,614)

Foreseeable ordinary dividends

(839)

(1,013)

Adjustment for trust assets (1)

(365)

(365)

Foreseeable charges

(50)

(525)

Adjustment under IFRS 9 transitional arrangements 

 39

 202

Expected loss less impairment

(34)

-


(8,224)

(8,827)

CET1 capital

 24,607

 24,440

Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital

 


Qualifying instruments and related share premium

 4,670

 3,875

AT1 capital

 4,670

 3,875

Tier 1 capital

 29,277

 28,315

Qualifying Tier 2 capital

 


Qualifying instruments and related share premium

 5,924

 5,189

Other regulatory adjustments

-

 128

Tier 2 capital

 5,924

 5,317

Total regulatory capital

 35,201

 33,632

(1)       Prudent deduction in respect of agreement with the pension fund to establish legal structure to remove dividend linked contribution.

 

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Minimum requirements of own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL)

The following table illustrates the components of estimated MREL in NatWest Group and operating subsidiaries and includes external issuances only.

 


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


 

Balance

Regulatory

MREL

 


Balance

Regulatory

MREL


Par  value (1)

sheet value

value

value (2)

 

Par value 

sheet value

value

value


£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

 

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

CET1 capital (3)

24.6

24.6

24.6

24.6


24.4

24.4

24.4

24.4

Tier 1 capital: end-point CRR compliant AT1

 

 

 

 

 





   of which: NatWest Group plc (holdco)

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

 

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

   of which: NatWest Group plc operating  subsidiaries (opcos)

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-


4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

 

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

Tier 1 capital: end-point CRR non-compliant

 

 

 

 

 





   of which: holdco

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

   of which: opcos

0.1

0.1

-

-

 

0.1

0.1

-

-


0.1

0.1

-

-

 

0.1

0.1

-

-

Tier 2 capital: end-point CRR compliant

 

 

 

 

 





   of which: holdco

5.9

5.6

5.9

5.9

 

5.6

5.3

5.2

5.2

   of which: opcos

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-


5.9

5.6

5.9

5.9

 

5.6

5.3

5.2

5.2

Tier 2 capital: end-point CRR non-compliant

 

 

 

 

 





   of which: holdco

-

-

-

-

 

-

-

-

-

   of which: opcos

0.2

0.3

-

-

 

0.2

0.3

-

-


0.2

0.3

-

-

 

0.2

0.3

-

-

Senior unsecured debt securities 

 

 

 

 

 





   of which: holdco

22.1

21.4

-

22.1

 

22.2

21.7

-

22.2

   of which: opcos (4)

34.0

33.5

-

-


33.4

29.9

-

-


56.1

54.9

-

22.1


55.6

51.6

-

22.2

Tier 2 capital

 

 

 

 

 





   Other regulatory adjustments

-

-

-

-


-

-

0.1

0.1


 

 

 

 






Total

91.6

90.2

35.2

57.3


89.8

85.6

33.6

55.8

RWAs

 

 

 

180.8





183.0

UK leverage exposure

 

 

 

565.7





562.8

MREL as a ratio of RWAs

 

 

 

31.7%





30.5%

MREL as a ratio of UK leverage exposure

 

 

 

10.1%





9.9%

 

(1)

Par value reflects the nominal value of securities issued.

(2)

MREL value reflects NatWest Group's interpretation of the Bank of England's approach to setting a MREL, published in December 2021 (Updating June 2018). Liabilities excluded from MREL include instruments with less than one year remaining to maturity, structured debt, operating company senior debt, and other instruments that do not meet the MREL criteria. The MREL calculation includes Tier 1 and Tier 2 securities before the application of any regulatory caps or adjustments.

(3)

Shareholders' equity was £37.5 billion (2023 - £37.2 billion).

(4)

As per 2023, Intra group issuances were reported in "Par value" but on further clarification from Bank of England, it has been excluded from reporting in 2024.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Minimum requirements of own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL)

The following table illustrates the components of the stock of outstanding issuance in NatWest Group plc and its operating subsidiaries including external and internal issuances.



 

NatWest

 

 

 

NatWest

NWM

RBS



NatWest

Holdings

NWB

RBS

NWM

Markets

Securities

International



Group plc

Limited

Plc

plc

Plc

N.V.

Inc.

Limited



£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

Additional Tier 1

Externally issued

4.7 

-   

0.1 

-   

-   

-   

-   

-   

Additional Tier 1

Internally issued

-   

3.9 

3.3 

0.5 

0.9 

0.2 

-   

0.3 



4.7 

3.9 

3.4 

0.5 

0.9 

0.2 

-   

0.3 

Tier 2

Externally issued

5.6 

-   

-   

-   

0.0 

0.2 

-   

-   

Tier 2

Internally issued

0.0 

5.2 

3.6 

0.9 

1.1 

0.1 

0.3 

-   



5.6 

5.2 

3.6 

0.9 

1.1 

0.3 

0.3 

-   

Senior unsecured

Externally issued

21.4 

-   

-   

-   

-   

-   

-   

-   

Senior unsecured

Internally issued

-   

11.0 

6.5 

1.1 

3.5 

-   

-   

0.3 



21.4 

11.0 

6.5 

1.1 

3.5 

-   

-   

0.3 

Total outstanding issuance

31.7 

20.1 

13.5 

2.5 

5.5 

0.5 

0.3 

0.6 

(1)     For AT1 and Tier 2, the balances are the IFRS balance sheet carrying amounts, which may differ from the amount which the instrument contributes to regulatory capital. Regulatory balances exclude, for example, issuance costs and fair value movements, while dated capital is required to be amortised on a straight-line basis over the final five years of maturity.

(2)     Balance sheet amounts reported for AT1 and Tier 2 instruments are before grandfathering restrictions imposed by CRR.

(3)     Internal issuance for NWB Plc and RBS plc represents AT1, Tier 2 or Senior unsecured issuance to NWH Ltd and for NWM N.V. and NWM SI to NWM Plc.

(4)     The balances are the IFRS balance sheet carrying amounts for Senior unsecured debt category and it does not include CP, CD and short term/medium notes issued from NatWest Group operating subsidiaries.

(5)     The above table does not include CET 1 numbers.

(6)     NWM Securities Inc is regulated under US broker dealer rules.



 

(7)     RBSI Ltd - MREL resolution rules are under development in Jersey.

Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Risk-weighted assets

The table below analyses the movement in RWAs during the half year, by key drivers.


 

Counterparty

 

Operational

 


Credit risk

credit risk

Market risk

risk

Total 


£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

At 31 December 2023

147.6

7.8

7.4

20.2

183.0

Foreign exchange movement

(0.2)

-

-

-

(0.2)

Business movement

(2.2)

(0.6)

(0.4)

1.6

(1.6)

Risk parameter changes

(0.1)

(0.1)

-

-

(0.2)

Model updates

(0.2)

-

-

-

(0.2)

-

-

-

-

-

144.9

7.1

7.0

21.8

180.8

 

The table below analyses segmental RWAs.


 

 

 

 

Total 


Retail

Private

Commercial &

Central items 

NatWest


Banking

Banking

Institutional 

& other (1)

Group

Total RWAs

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

£bn

At 31 December 2023

61.6

11.2

107.4

2.8

183.0

Foreign exchange movement

-

-

(0.2)

-

(0.2)

Business movement

0.7

(0.2)

(1.9)

(0.2)

(1.6)

Risk parameter changes 

0.2

-

(0.4)

-

(0.2)

Model updates

(0.2)

-

-

-

(0.2)

At 30 June 2024

62.3

11.0

104.9

2.6

180.8


-

-

-

-

-

Credit risk

53.9

9.5

79.4

2.1

144.9

Counterparty credit risk

0.2

-

6.9

-

7.1

Market risk

0.1

-

6.9

-

7.0

Operational risk

8.1

1.5

11.7

0.5

21.8

Total RWAs

62.3

11.0

104.9

2.6

180.8







(1)     £0.9 billion of Central items & other relates to Ulster Bank RoI.

Total RWAs decreased by £2.2 billion to £180.8 billion during the period mainly reflecting:

-    A decrease in Business movements totalling £1.6 billion, primarily driven by active RWA management of £4.3 billion partially offset by increased RWAs following annual recalculation of operational risk as a result of higher income when compared to 2020 and an increase in drawdowns and new facilities within Commercial & Institutional.

-    A decrease in Risk parameters of £0.2 billion, primarily driven by customers moving into default within Commercial & Institutional.



 

-    A decrease in model updates of £0.2 billion, driven by IRB Temporary Model Adjustment related to mortgages within Retail Banking.

Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Funding sources (reviewed)

The table below shows the carrying values of the principal funding sources based on contractual maturity. Balance sheet captions include balances held at all classifications under IFRS 9.


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


Short-term

Long-term

 

 

Short-term

Long-term



less than

more than

 

 

less than

more than



1 year

1 year

Total

 

1 year

1 year

Total


£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

Bank deposits

 

 

 





   Repos

5,897

-

5,897

 

3,118

-

3,118

   Other bank deposits (1)

5,965

13,764

19,729

 

5,836

13,236

19,072


11,862

13,764

25,626

 

8,954

13,236

22,190

Customer deposits

 

 

 

 




   Repos

6,846

-

6,846

 

10,844

-

10,844

   Non-bank financial institutions

48,784

34

48,818

 

46,875

13

46,888

   Personal

221,498

6,255

227,753

 

216,456

6,436

222,892

   Corporate

149,448

110

149,558

 

150,718

35

150,753


426,576

6,399

432,975

 

424,893

6,484

431,377

Trading liabilities (2)

 

 

 

 




   Repos (3)

29,021

300

29,321

 

26,634

268

26,902

   Derivative collateral

14,030

-

14,030

 

15,075

-

15,075

   Other bank customer deposits

478

322

800

 

768

382

1,150

   Debt securities in issue - Medium term notes

80

227

307

 

418

288

706


43,609

849

44,458

 

42,895

938

43,833

Other financial liabilities

 

 

 

 




   Customer deposits

461

1,188

1,649

 

194

1,086

1,280

   Debt securities in issue:

-

-

-

 




      Commercial paper and certificates of deposit

12,023

362

12,385

 

11,116

205

11,321

      Medium term notes

6,811

35,459

42,270

 

6,878

32,625

39,503

      Covered bonds

-

749

749

 

2,122

-

2,122

      Securitisation (5)

-

1,222

1,222

 

-

863

863


19,295

38,980

58,275

 

20,310

34,779

55,089

Subordinated liabilities

1,593

4,439

6,032

 

1,047

4,667

5,714

Total funding

502,935

64,431

567,366

 

498,099

60,104

558,203

   Of which: available in resolution (4)

 

 

27,061




26,561

(1)       Includes £12.0 billion (31 December 2023 - £12.0 billion) relating to Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises participation.

(2)       Excludes short positions of £9.7 billion (31 December 2023 - £9.8 billion).

(3)       Comprises central & other bank repos of £6.4 billion (31 December 2023 - £4.0 billion), other financial institution repos of £20.0 billion (31 December 2023 - £20.4 billion) and other corporate repos of £2.9 billion (31 December 2023 - £2.5 billion).

(4)       Eligible liabilities (as defined in the Banking Act 2009 as amended from time to time) that meet the eligibility criteria set out in the regulations, rules, policies, guidelines, or statements of the Bank of England including the Statement of Policy published by the Bank of England in December 2021 (updating June 2018). The balance consists of £21.4 billion (31 December 2023 - £21.7 billion) under debt securities in issue (senior MREL) and £5.6 billion (31 December 2023 - £4.9 billion) under subordinated liabilities.

(5)       NatWest Group transfers credit risk on originated loans and mortgages without the transfer of assets to a structured entity, whereby it enters credit derivative and financial guarantee contracts with consolidated structured entities and they in turn issue debt securities to investors. This funding is legally ringfenced in the structured entity and is restricted to specifically cover investor credit protection claim payments in respect of the associated loans and mortgages.

 



Risk and capital management continued

Capital, liquidity and funding risk continued

Liquidity portfolio (reviewed)

The table below shows the composition of the liquidity portfolio with primary liquidity aligned to high-quality liquid assets on a regulatory LCR basis. Secondary liquidity comprises of assets which are eligible as collateral for local central bank liquidity facilities and do not form part of the LCR eligible high-quality liquid assets.


Liquidity value


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


NatWest

NWH

UK DoL

 

NatWest

NWH

UK DoL


Group (1)

Group (2)

Sub

 

Group (1)

Group (2)

Sub 


£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

Cash and balances at central banks 

 111,763

 73,408

 72,895

 

 99,855

 68,495

 67,954

High quality government/MDB/PSE and GSE bonds (4)

 35,616

 26,253

 26,253

 

 36,250

 26,510

 26,510

Extremely high quality covered bonds

 3,892

 3,892

 3,892

 

 4,164

 4,164

 4,164

LCR level 1 assets

 151,271

 103,553

 103,040

 

 140,269

 99,169

 98,628

LCR level 2 Eligible Assets (5)

 9,124

 7,897

 7,897

 

 7,796

 7,320

 7,320

Primary liquidity (HQLA) (6)

 160,395

 111,450

 110,937

 

 148,065

 106,489

 105,948

Secondary liquidity

 66,589

 66,559

 66,559

 

 74,722

 74,683

 74,683

Total liquidity value

 226,984

 178,009

 177,496

 

 222,787

 181,172

 180,631

(1)     NatWest Group includes the UK Domestic Liquidity Sub-Group (UK DoLSub), NatWest Markets Plc and other significant operating subsidiaries that hold liquidity portfolios. These include The RBSI Ltd and NWM N.V. who hold managed portfolios that comply with local regulations that may differ from PRA rules.

(2)     NWH Group comprises UK DoLSub and NatWest Bank Europe GmbH who hold managed portfolios that comply with local regulations that may differ from PRA rules.

(3)     NatWest Markets Plc liquidity portfolio is reported in the NatWest Markets Plc 2023 Annual Report and Accounts.

(4)     Multilateral development bank abbreviated to MDB, public sector entities abbreviated to PSE and government sponsored entities abbreviated to GSE.

(5)     Includes Level 2A and Level 2B.

(6)     High-quality liquid assets abbreviated to HQLA.

 




Risk and capital management continued

Non-traded market risk

Non-traded market risk is the risk to the value of assets or liabilities outside the trading book, or the risk to income, that arises from changes in market prices such as interest rates, foreign exchange rates and equity prices, or from changes in managed rates.

Key developments

-    In the UK, the base rate remained unchanged at 5.25% between 31 December 2023 and 30 June 2024.

-    At 30 June 2024, longer-term interest rates continued to anticipate future reductions in the UK base rate, but by less than expected at 31 December 2023. As a result, the five-year sterling swap rate increased to 3.99% at the end of June 2024 from 3.38% at the end of December 2023. The ten-year sterling swap rate also increased, to 3.88% from 3.29%.

-    The structural hedge notional decreased by £10 billion to £197 billion from £207 billion, partly reflecting recent changes in the deposit mix with higher volumes of term deposits and lower volumes of sight deposits.


 

-    The one-year positive sensitivity of net interest earnings to an upward 25-basis-point parallel shift in all yield curves reduced slightly, to £135 million at 30 June 2024 from £164 million at 31 December 2023, partly reflecting changes to customer pass-through assumptions. The adverse sensitivity to a downward 25-basis-point parallel shift was broadly stable at £167 million at 30 June 2024 compared to £169 million at 31 December 2023.

-    Sterling was broadly stable against both the US dollar and the euro over the period. Against the dollar, sterling was 1.26 at 30 June 2024 compared to 1.27 at 31 December 2023. Against the euro, it was 1.18 at 30 June 2024 compared to 1.15 at 31 December 2023. Structural foreign currency exposures (excluding additional tier 1 economic hedges) were stable, in sterling-equivalent nominal terms, at £3,375 million at 30 June 2024 compared to £3,381 million at 31 December 2023.

 


Non-traded internal VaR (1-day 99%) (reviewed)

The following table shows one-day internal banking book Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a 99% confidence level, split by risk type.


Half year ended


30 June 2024

 

30 June 2023

 

31 December 2023


 

 

 

Period

 




Period

 




Period


Average

Maximum

Minimum

end

 

Average

Maximum

Minimum

end

 

Average

Maximum

Minimum

end


£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Interest rate

 24.1

 28.2

 17.6

 17.6


40.5

63.2

30.1

63.2


38.0

63.2

24.6

24.6

Credit spread

 55.6

 60.2

 50.7

 50.7

 

23.6

29.7

20.9

29.7

 

33.1

54.2

20.9

54.2

Structural foreign 

 

 

 

 

 





 





   exchange rate

 9.2

 12.3

 7.1

 12.3

 

11.3

13.6

8.4

12.3

 

11.2

13.6

8.4

12.1

Equity

 9.3

 10.3

 8.2

 8.2

 

16.7

19.0

13.0

13.0

 

14.2

19.0

10.4

10.4

Pipeline risk (1)

 5.9

 12.7

 3.4

 12.7

 

3.1

4.4

1.4

3.4

 

3.3

7.1

1.4

7.1

Diversification (2)

(41.1)

 

 

(39.7)

 

(35.3)



(38.1)

 

(34.4)



(29.9)

Total

 63.0

 73.8

 52.9

 61.8


59.9

83.5

52.1

83.5


65.4

83.4

52.1

78.5

(1)       Pipeline risk is the risk of loss arising from Personal customers owning an option to draw down a loan - typically a mortgage - at a committed rate, where interest rate changes may result in greater or fewer customers than anticipated taking up the committed offer.

(2)       NatWest Group benefits from diversification across various financial instrument types, currencies and markets. The extent of the diversification benefit depends on the correlation between the assets and risk factors in the portfolio at a particular time. The diversification factor is the sum of the VaR on individual risk types less the total portfolio VaR.

-    On an average basis, total non-traded VaR for H1 2024 was broadly similar to H1 2023 and H2 2023.

-    Interest rate VaR fell at the end of H1 2024, reflecting action taken to manage down interest rate repricing mismatches across customer products.

-    After increasing significantly during H2 2023, credit spread VaR reduced towards the end of H1 2024. This was mainly driven by earlier loss events falling out of the VaR calculation window.

-    Pipeline VaR increased, partly reflecting hedging modifications related to recent changes in customer behaviour through the fixed-rate mortgage application process.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Non-traded market risk continued

Structural hedging

NatWest Group has a significant pool of stable, non and low interest-bearing liabilities, principally comprising current accounts and instant access savings, as well as its equity and reserves. A proportion of these balances are hedged, either by investing directly in longer-term fixed-rate assets (such as fixed-rate mortgages) or by using interest rate swaps, which are generally booked as cash flow hedges of floating-rate assets, in order to provide a consistent and predictable revenue stream.

After hedging the net interest rate exposure, NatWest Group allocates income to equity or products in structural hedges by reference to the relevant interest rate swap curve. Over time, this approach has provided a basis for stable income attribution for management purposes, to products and interest rate returns. The programme aims to track a time series of medium-term swap rates, but the yield will be affected by changes in NatWest Group's equity capital.

The table below shows hedge income, total yield, incremental income and the period-end and average notional balances allocated to equity and products in respect of the structural hedges managed by NatWest Group. Hedge income represents the fixed leg of the hedge. Incremental income represents the difference between hedge income and short-term cash rates. For example, the sterling overnight index average (SONIA) is used to estimate incremental income from sterling structural hedges.


Half year ended


30 June 2024

 

30 June 2023


31 December 2023


 

 

Period

 

 

 



Period






Period




Incremental

Hedge

-end

Average

Total

 

Incremental

Hedge

-end

Average

Total


Incremental

Hedge

-end

Average

Total


income

income

notional

notional

yield

 

income

income

notional

notional

yield


income

income

notional

notional

yield


£m

£m

£bn

£bn

%

 

£m

£m

£bn

£bn

%


£m

£m

£bn

£bn

%

Equity 

(364)

218

22

22

1.95


(246)

204

23

22

1.83


(365)

214

22

23

1.91

Product

(3,184)

1,392

175

176

1.58

 

(2,773)

1,362

202

205

1.33


(3,548)

1,460

185

193

1.51

Total

(3,548)

1,610

197

198

1.62


(3,019)

1,566

225

227

1.38


(3,913)

1,674

207

216

1.56

 

For commentary, refer to the following page.

 

Equity structural hedges refer to income allocated primarily to equity and reserves. At 30 June 2024, the equity structural hedge notional was allocated between NWH Group and NWM Group in a ratio of approximately 78/22 respectively.

Product structural hedges refer to income allocated to customer products, mainly current accounts and customer deposits in Commercial & Institutional, Retail Banking and Private Banking.

At 30 June 2024, approximately 94% by notional of total structural hedges were sterling-denominated.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Non-traded market risk continued

The following table presents the incremental income associated with product structural hedges at segment level.


Half year ended


30 June

30 June

31 December


2024

2023

2023


£m

£m

£m

Retail Banking

(1,354)

(1,156)

(1,488)

Commercial & Institutional 

(1,617)

(1,415)

(1,798)

Private Banking & Other

(212)

(202)

(262)

Total

(3,184)

(2,773)

(3,548)

 

-    The structural hedge notional fell, mainly reflecting recent changes in the deposit mix, including migration to term deposits.

-    The five-year sterling swap rate rose to 3.99% at 30 June 2024 from 3.38% at 31 December 2023. The ten-year sterling swap rate also rose, to 3.88% from 3.29%. The structural hedge yield also rose to 1.62% in H1 2024 from 1.56% in H2 2023 and from 1.38% in H1 2023.

-    Incremental income remained negative in H1 2024. Compared to the total yield of 1.62% in H1 2024, the sterling overnight cash rate (i.e. SONIA) in H1 2024 was 5.19% on average.

 

 

Sensitivity of net interest earnings

Net interest earnings are sensitive to changes in the level of interest rates, mainly because maturing structural hedges are replaced at higher or lower rates and changes to coupons on managed rate customer products do not always match changes in market rates of interest or central bank policy rates.

Earnings sensitivity is derived from a market-implied forward rate curve, which will incorporate expected changes in central bank policy rates such as the Bank of England base rate. A simple scenario is shown that projects forward earnings based on the 30 June 2024 balance sheet, which is assumed to remain constant. An earnings projection is derived from the market-implied curve, which is then subject to interest rate shocks. The difference between the market-implied projection and the shock gives an indication of underlying sensitivity to interest rate movements.

Reported sensitivities should not be considered a forecast of future performance in these rate scenarios. Actions that could reduce interest earnings sensitivity include changes in pricing strategies on customer loans and deposits as well as hedging. Management action may also be taken to stabilise total income also taking into account non-interest income.



 

Risk and capital management continued

Non-traded market risk continued

The table below shows the sensitivity of net interest earnings - for both structural hedges and managed rate accounts - on a one, two and three-year forward-looking basis to an upward or downward interest rate shift of 25 basis points.


+25 basis points upward shift

 

-25 basis points downward shift


Year 1 

Year 2 

Year 3

 

Year 1 

Year 2 

Year 3

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

Structural hedges

 42

 129

 216

 

(42)

(129)

(216)

Managed margin

 93

 97

 110

 

(125)

(107)

(110)

Total

 135

 226

 326

 

(167)

(236)

(326)


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

31 December 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Structural hedges

44

138

227


(44)

(138)

(227)

Managed margin

120

117

114


(125)

(121)

(105)

Total

164

255

341


(169)

(259)

(332)

 

(1)

Earnings sensitivity considers only the main drivers, namely structural hedging and margin management.

 

The following table presents the one-year sensitivity to upward and downward 25-basis-point and 100-basis-point shifts in the yield curve, analysed by currency.


Shifts in yield curve


30 June 2024

 

31 December 2023


+25 basis 

-25 basis 

+100 basis

-100 basis

 

+25 basis 

-25 basis 

+100 basis

-100 basis


points

points

points

points

 

points

points

points

points

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Euro

1

(5)

5

(16)


7

(11)

38

(45)

Sterling

121

(149)

487

(614)


138

(139)

504

(577)

US dollar

10

(9)

46

(47)


14

(14)

54

(56)

Other

3

(4)

13

(15)


5

(5)

21

(22)

Total

135

(167)

551

(692)


164

(169)

617

(700)

 

-    Changes in pass-through assumptions for managed-rate savings products contributed to the reduced sensitivity.

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Non-traded market risk continued

Foreign exchange risk (reviewed)

The table below shows structural foreign currency exposures.


 

 

Structural foreign

 

Residual


Net investments in

Net investment

currency exposures

Economic

structural foreign


foreign operations

in hedges

pre-economic hedges

hedges (1)

currency exposures

30 June 2024

£m

£m

£m

£m

£m

US dollar

1,201

-

1,201

(1,201)

-

Euro

4,345

(2,649)

1,696

-

1,696

Other non-sterling

864

(386)

478

-

478

Total

6,410

(3,035)

3,375

(1,201)

2,174


 

 

 

 

 

31 December 2023

 

 

 

 

 

US dollar

1,185

(228)

957

(957)

-

Euro

4,475

(2,585)

1,890

-

1,890

Other non-sterling

963

(429)

534

-

534

Total

6,623

(3,242)

3,381

(957)

2,424

(1)       Economic hedges of US dollar net investments in foreign operations represent US dollar equity securities that do not qualify as net investment hedges for accounting purposes. They provide an offset to structural foreign exchange exposures to the extent that there are net assets in overseas operations available.

-      Changes in foreign currency exchange rates affect equity in proportion to structural foreign currency exposure. For example, a 5% strengthening or weakening in foreign currencies against sterling would result in a gain or loss of £159 million in equity, respectively.

 

 



 

Risk and capital management continued

Traded market risk

Traded market risk is the risk arising from changes in fair value on positions, assets, liabilities or commitments in trading portfolios as a result of fluctuations in market prices.

Traded VaR (1-day 99%) (reviewed)

The table below shows one-day internal value-at-risk (VaR) for NatWest Group's trading portfolios, split by exposure type.


Half year ended


30 June 2024

 

30 June 2023

 

31 December 2023


 

 

 

Period

 




Period

 




Period


Average

Maximum

Minimum

end

 

Average

Maximum

Minimum

end

 

Average

Maximum

Minimum

end


£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

 

£m

£m

£m

£m

Interest rate

 6.7

 12.0

 3.6

 6.6


9.0

19.3

4.3

16.5


 10.5

 17.3

 4.4

 7.4

Credit spread

 8.1

 10.1

 6.7

 7.6

 

5.9

6.9

4.9

6.1

 

 6.4

 7.1

 5.3

 6.8

Currency

 2.1

 6.7

 0.8

 1.9

 

2.1

4.9

1.0

1.5

 

 2.4

 7.0

 0.9

 1.8

Equity

 0.1

 0.1

 0.1

 0.1

 

-

0.1

-

-

 

-

 0.1

-

 0.1

Diversification (1)

(6.8)

 

 

(5.5)

 

(6.8)



(6.3)

 

(6.9)



(7.2)

Total

 10.2

 16.2

 7.0

 10.7


10.2

17.8

6.6

17.8


 12.4

 20.0

 8.4

 8.9

 

(1)       NatWest Group benefits from diversification across various financial instrument types, currencies and markets. The extent of the diversification benefit depends on the correlation between the assets and risk factors in the portfolio at a particular time. The diversification factor is the sum of the VaR on individual risk types less the total portfolio VaR.

 

-      The decrease in average interest rate VaR and total VaR, compared to 2023, reflected a decrease in yield curve risk in sterling and euro flow trading.

-      The increase in average credit spread VaR mainly reflected a net longer credit profile over the period.

 


Pension risk

On 31 May 2024, the Trustee of the Group Pension Fund entered into a buy-in transaction with a third-party insurer for some of the liabilities of the Main section. This is an insurance policy that gives the Fund protection against demographic and investment risks, so improves the security of member benefits. The transaction has not affected the 2024 statement of comprehensive income because the net pension asset is limited to zero due to the impact of the asset ceiling.

Compliance and conduct risk

A ring-fencing attestation was completed and submitted to the PRA on 29 March 2024. The annual Board Consumer Duty assessment concluded that NatWest Group is meeting its obligations. Following the second phase of Consumer Duty rules coming into force on 31 July 2024, planning is centred around embedding and enhancing ongoing work, including reporting on good customer outcomes, and Group-wide communications.

NatWest Markets has a programme in place to review, remediate and enhance certain areas of its business. The results of this will be shared with the Department of Justice Monitor and other regulators, with the ongoing work plan continuing to be assessed for potential impact.

 


 

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